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If ever we were going to blindly fade the public yesterday without further review of the game, we would have faded Texas. Fortunately we did not. The Rangers ended up winning against the Blue Jays even with that line dropping fast. We did, however, give the Blue Jays a 55% chance in that one.
Today's teams to consider fading are the Phillies (nearly 80% of public backing), Braves (75%), Tigers (75%), Brewers (75%), Indians (70%), and Astros (70%).
The Braves line has come down from -155 to -121, an indication that the books want us to bet Miami. The Marlins are not a team we want to be backing right now though as they have only won three of their last ten games overall.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Julio Teheran (2-4, 5.35 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.78)
Teheran began his season by going 2-1 in his first four starts, but over his past three outings has pitched to a 6.11 ERA with 17 hits allowed (including four homers) over 17 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old has surrendered four earned runs or more in three of his past five starts, giving up four runs on five hits (three homers) across seven innings with eight strikeouts in Tuesday's 4-3 loss to San Diego. Teheran is 7-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 20 career starts against Miami.
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Lopez earned the win in his first start of the season, but has allowed four earned runs in three of his next five starts and is 1-4 in that stretch. The 23-year-old gave up four runs on three hits with four strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings Sunday at Philadelphia, five days after allowing no earned runs on two hits with six strikeouts over a season-best 6 1/3 innings to beat Cleveland. Lopez faced the Braves on April 5, surrendering four runs on seven hits in five innings of a 4-0 loss.
The Phillies line has hovered between -157 and -161.
The Tigers line has moved between -121 and -124.
The Brewers had dipped to -135 but was back to -146 to -152 most books.
The Indians line has moved from -130 to -143.
Cleveland is looking to sweep this series. They have won the last five games versus Seattle.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners RH Erik Swanson (0-3, 6.62 ERA) vs. Indians RH Cody Anderson (0-0, 5.40)
Swanson makes his fourth start and fifth appearance overall, looking for his first major league victory. The 25-year-old Ohio native struggled in his last two trips to the mound while allowing 14 runs (10 earned) on 18 hits - four homers - across 9 2/3 innings combined. Jake Bauers had a solo homer and a single last month against Swanson, who struck out a season-high five in that matchup.
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Anderson has made three appearances out of the bullpen this year, permitting three runs over five innings, and will be given a chance to win a spot in an injury-plagued rotation. The 28-year-old California native missed all of the 2017 season and did not pitch in the majors in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. Anderson, who went 9-8 for Cleveland in 2015 and 2016, yielded two hits over six scoreless innings at Triple-A Columbus earlier this season.
Cleveland is probably not the best team to fade this day, but we won't touch this one.
The Astros - This line is at -235.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
