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A lot of NBA fans are already ruling the Toronto Raptors out in the 2019 NBA Finals.
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While the Golden State Warriors come into this series with an edge over Toronto, the Raptors have a chance to pull off the upset. In this article, we’re going to look at what the Raptors need to do if they want to upset GSW and win the first NBA Championship in team history.
Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors Preview and Predictions
- Defense
Defense wins championships and the Raptors have the edge on defense. Toronto ended the regular season with a 106.8 defensive rating (5th), while the Warriors had a 108.5 DEF RTG (11th).
The Raptors just held Giannis Antetokounmpo to 22.7 PPG while shooting 44.5 FG% (33.1% 3P%) after he had averaged 27.4 PPG against the Pistons and Celtics. Steph Curry averaged 24.3 PPG in the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs, but he got hot against Portland and scored 36.5 PPG.
Toronto needs to chase everyone off the 3-point line and make the Warriors beat them in the paint. I believe the Raptors have the edge in the paint with Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam.
- Bench Scoring
During the regular season the Raptors bench scored 36.2 PPG, but that number has dropped to 25.1 PPG in the playoffs. The bench improved in the ECF, though, as the bench averaged 31.6 PPG.
Fred Vanvleet found his shooting stroke in the ECF, nailing 16/28 3-pointers (61.7%). Norman Powell is attacking more often and he went from scoring 21 total points against the 76ers to averaging 12.3 PPG against the Bucks. Serge Ibaka has averaged 8.7 PPG and 6.2 RPG in 21.3 MPG during the NBA playoffs, but he scored 20 points in both regular season meetings against the Warriors.
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Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.2 PPG in the playoffs after scoring 26.6 PPG during the regular season, but he’ll need more help if the Raptors are going to win this series.
- Siakam vs. Green
Siakam isn’t 100% and his performances against the Bucks were all over the place. He finished the series averaging 14.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1 BPG and 1 SPG. Draymond Green has exploded since Kevin Durant got injured and he averaged 16.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 8.8 APG, 2.8 BPG and 2.3 SPG against Portland. The Raptors need Siakam to match Green’s production in this series.
Green was held to 2 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in 25 minutes against Toronto in a home loss (113-93) back in December. He missed the first meeting. If the Raptors can limit Green to fewer than 10.0 PPG and Siakam can get into his regular season form, that’ll be a huge edge for Toronto.
Toronto won both H2H meetings during the regular season. The Warriors were missing key players in both games, but Leonard also didn’t play in one of the games. Toronto are under no pressure now that they have made the NBA Finals and I expect the offense to be free flowing.
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Home court advantage will also help. Toronto are 8-2 at Scotiabank Arena in the playoffs and they have won five in a row at home. The Raptors have a huge edge at home due to the raucous crowd.
