MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 10
Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Monday June 10. A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews
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Yankees - Probably the top consensus play and seeing decent betting action as well. The line has trended -170 to -200 in this Subway Series vs. the Mets. The total has moved from 9 to 9.5, but has hit 10 on and off at a few books.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets LH Jason Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (3-5, 3.42)
Vargas was one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the first few weeks and was in danger of losing his spot in the rotation with an ERA that ballooned to 14.21 on April 13, but things have changed. The 36-year-old posted a 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts and is coming off a five-hit, eight-strikeout shutout of the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. Vargas is seeing the Yankees for the first time since 2017, when he lost a pair of starts while allowing a total of nine runs in 10 innings as a member of the Kansas City Royals.
Tanaka got an extra day off for paternity leave and is making his first start since Tuesday, when he allowed four runs and six hits - including two home runs - in six innings to suffer a loss at Toronto. The Japan native is winless in his last four outings and surrendered a total of nine runs - eight earned - and 15 hits in 12 innings over his last two turns. Tanaka struck out eight and yielded only one hit - a solo home run - over five innings in his lone start against the Mets last season but did not factor in the decision.
Only four of the last ten meetings have resulted in more than 9 runs scored.
Cardinals - Among the top consensus plays, the line has trended mostly from -119 to -140.
St. Louis is a .500 team that lost their last three in Chicago against the Cubs but have won half of their last ten games. They will face one of the worst teams in the league, the Marlins. Miami is coming off of four straight losses.
These teams each have five wins in their last ten meetings.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (3-2, 6.30 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.80)
Wacha returns to the starting rotation after making a pair of relief appearances, including a scoreless outing against Cincinnati on Tuesday in which he allowed two hits and recorded three strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old native of Iowa did not fare as well his first time out of the bullpen as he was tagged for six runs on five hits and three walks in one frame at Philadelphia on May 29. Wacha has yet to lose to Miami in his career, going 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in three starts.
Alcantara is coming off a victory at Milwaukee on Wednesday in which he allowed one run and five hits over seven innings. The 23-year-old Dominican issued just one walk in the triumph after handing out five free passes while giving up only two hits over six scoreless frames in a no-decision against San Francisco in his previous turn. Alcantara never has faced St. Louis, the club with which he began his major-league career in 2017 as a reliever.
While the Cards appear to be a tempting play on the surface, remember they are just 3-13 in their last 16 road games.
Dodgers - This was the most wagered on MLB team at some books Monday morning. They were seeing the brunt of the money line bets vs. the Angels. You could still get the Dodgers at -159 as of 11:30 am ET at BetOnline. The line was moving up from -148.
These teams have split wins and losses over their last ten meetings.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-1, 1.35 ERA) vs. Angels RH Griffin Canning (2-2, 3.52)
Ryu recorded his seventh straight victory on Tuesday, allowing three hits over seven innings in a combined shutout against Arizona. The National League Pitcher of the Month for May, Ryu is 7-0 with a 0.75 ERA, 48 strikeouts and three walks in his last eight turns. Mike Trout is 0-for-7 with two strikeouts against the 32-year-old South Korean, who is 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three career starts versus the Angels.
Canning registered a career-high eight strikeouts against Oakland on Tuesday but suffered the loss after yielding four runs in six innings. The 23-year-old rookie is one of four pitchers in American League history to fan at least five batters in each of his first seven career games. A second-round draft pick of the Angels in 2017, Canning owns an impressive 42-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first seven outings.
This one scares us because the price is too low considering Jin Ryu is coming off his seventh straight victory.
The total has trended 8.5 to 9 with nearly 70% of the total action on the UNDER. This would seem to suggest the books would be bringing the number down to 8 or even 7.5. Using the current total of 9, the UNDER is 9-0-1. As such, the OVER can't be considered here, though it's tempting.
Rays - Tampa Bay was seeing between 72% and 76% of the consensus play action. The line has moved from -178 to -191. If you don't mind high priced plays, there is some reason to consider the Rays based on action vs. the line movement.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Tanner Anderson (2018: 1-0, 6.35 ERA) vs. Rays RH Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.30)
Anderson will make his first major-league start on Monday after recording six relief appearances with Pittsburgh last season. The 26-year-old Harvard graduate was acquired from the Pirates in November and posted a 4-4 mark with a 6.26 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas. Anderson's time with the Athletics is expected to be short, as the club has an off-day on Thursday and won't need more than a four-man rotation until June 18.
Morton won his third straight start after scattering five hits and striking out eight in a 4-0 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. The 35-year-old worked a season-high seven innings in back-to-back starts, although he exited his last outing against the Tigers despite tossing just 83 pitches. Matt Chapman (2-for-11) and Khris Davis (3-for-16, two homers) have struggled against Morton, who sports a 1-1 mark with a 4.15 ERA in five career starts versus Oakland.
The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay with a total set at 9. This one is trending from 8.5 to 9.
Oakland has allowed 5 or more runs in half of their last ten games overall. They have scored five or more runs in five of their last six.
Tampa Bay has permitted five or more runs in half of their last ten overall. They have scored five or more in six of their last ten.
The OVER is 15-4-4 in the Rays last 23 home games.
The Athletics are 0-9 in their last 9 vs. American League East.
The Rays are 14-2 in their last 16 vs. American League West.
The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
Should Morton happen to have an off day, Tampa Bay has the 2nd best bullpen in Major League Baseball. Otherwise, the OVER might appear tempting on the surface based on all other recent trends.
Phillies - 74% of the consensus plays are on Philadelphia. The line has sat at -135.
Arizona has won their last six overall and are a few wins above the .500 mark. The Diamondbacks have had Philadelphia's number, winning seven of the last ten meetings. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. Arizona is +125 here.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Taylor Clarke (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 4.14)
Clarke answered a brutal outing in which he surrendered five runs in two innings by permitting three runs (two earned) on four hits over five frames in Tuesday's 9-0 setback versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 26-year-old will be making his fifth appearance in six outings on the road, where he has allowed the opposition to bat .262 against him. Clarke, who has yielded two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts, initially was called up from Triple-A Reno to add depth to a tired Arizona bullpen.
Eickhoff answered a four-start winless stretch with a strong showing on Tuesday, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings of a 9-6 victory at San Diego. The 28-year-old continues to struggle with the home-run ball, surrendering 11 in his last five outings after keeping the ball in the park in each of his first five of the season. Nick Ahmed (3-for-4, homer) has fared well versus Eickhoff, who is 0-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.
Clarke is coming off two poor starts and could be considered as "due" for this one.
For us it is difficult NOT to jump on the Diamondbacks here. We will be taking Arizona +125 here.
Rangers vs. Red Sox - The -255 price on Boston is too high. The Red Sox have won eight of the last ten in this series. The total has trended from 8.5 to 7.5. Total action was relatively balanced on the 7.5. Only four of the last ten meetings have resulted in 7 or fewer runs.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Mike Minor (5-4, 2.55 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (2-7, 3.84)
Minor allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight outings and held the Baltimore Orioles scoreless on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings to earn a win on Wednesday. The 31-year-old did not complete more than six innings in any of his last six turns and needed 117 pitches to get through 5 2/3 frames against the Orioles. Minor went 1-1 in two starts against the Red Sox last season, with the loss coming in a start at Fenway Park on July 9 in which he was charged with two runs in 5 1/3 innings.
Sale was at the top of his game last time out, firing off a 102-pitch shutout at Kansas City on Wednesday in which he struck out 12, did not issue a walk and scattered three hits. The Florida native owns 110 strikeouts and 19 walks in 77 1/3 total innings and recorded double-digit strikeouts in seven of his last nine turns. Sale won both of his starts against Texas last season, allowing a total of one run in 14 innings while racking up 24 strikeouts.
The total trend suggests the books like the UNDER but tough to see here with both starters coming off wins and the total trend leans more towards an OVER. We would pass on this one.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
Our Free Picks Record June 10
2019 MLB Record: 15-8-2 (65.2%) - No Plays Over -160
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
