MLB Betting Picks July 29 – Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have been one of the best teams in MLB over the last two months and still find themselves staring at 5.5-game deficit in the NL East.

That’s because the Atlanta Braves have also been really good over the same time. The top clubs in the division open an important three-game series in our nation’s capital on Monday with the visitors looking to extend their lead behind southpaw Dallas Keuchel. The Nats counter with Patrick Corbin in a game that can be seen on ESPN. Betting options for every game on the Monday MLB schedule are available at BookMaker.eu.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Date and Time: Monday, July 29, 2019, 7:05 p.m. ET

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Probable Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Patrick Corbin

Opening MLB Odds: Washington -145, Atlanta +125, O/U 9.5

Braves at Nationals TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

The Braves took two out of three games from another division foe Philadelphia over the weekend, and enter this showdown with the NL’s best road record. However, they will have to navigate the next several days without two starters after Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson were both placed on the injured list. Atlanta took two of three in their only visit to Washington last month.

Turning their season around with an impressive run over the last two months, the Nats will figure prominently in how the division shakes out. Since May 24 they are 37-18, and that’s after losing two of three games to the Dodgers over the weekend. Washington avoided the sweep behind Stephen Strasburg and the starters have an impressive 2.24 ERA over the last 25 games. Washington hasn’t been able to gain more ground since the Braves are 34-21 over the same span.

Probable Pitchers

These are the games the Braves expect Dallas Keuchel ( 3-3, 3.50 ERA ) to win. That’s why they signed the former Cy Young winner. The lefty fanned a season-high 12 in his last outing giving up three hits and two runs with a no decision in a game Atlanta lost. Keuchel has four quality starts in his last five outings and has permitted more than three runs just once in his seven starts.

Just over a month ago Keuchel made his Braves debut against the Nats in Washington giving up eight hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings. That was his shortest stint of the season and the hits allowed are tied for the most. He’s yielded just 25 hits over his 33.0 innings pitched.

A huge reason why the Nats rotation has been so good lately is Patrick Corbin ( 8-5, 3.25 ERA ), who is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and .217 BAA over his last seven starts. Corbin blanked Colorado on three hits in 6.0 innings in his last start and the Nats improved to 6-1 in those seven assignments. The lefty has allowed two runs or less six times in that span.

Corbin faced the Braves just 10 days ago allowing two runs and eight hits in 5.0 innings. He didn’t factor in the decision. That was the only Nats loss in Corbin’s last seven starts. Corbin has been money at home going 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .187 BAA across 69.2 innings of 10 starts.

Key Stat

Keuchel is widely regarded as one of the top hurlers in baseball with a Cy Young award to his credit. However, he hasn’t been able to tame the Nationals and the players on the current roster. The group has hit Keuchel to a .369 averaged with three home runs and a .974 OPS. Brian Dozier has done a lot of the damage going 7 for 15 lifetime against Keuchel. Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick have combined to hit .387. Keuchel was touched for eight hits and three earned by the Nats when he made his Braves debut last month.

Bet Braves at Nationals BookMaker.eu

With Max Scherzer likely to miss a start this series, the opener becomes even more important for the Nats. Corbin has been the guy lately and his home/road splits are alarming. He hasn’t allowed a run over 13 innings of his last two home starts and he’s yielded just two runs over his last four starts at Nationals Park. Take two key players out of the Braves lineup and shutting them down becomes even more likely for Corbin. There shouldn’t be a lot of runs scored while the starters are in there. There could be some damage in the later stages with both pens having difficulties, but don’t bet on it. Take the home club and the under to win this bet at BookMaker.eu.

MLB Score Prediction: Nationals 4, Braves 2

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor (Article Courtesy of Bookmaker)