NBA Basketball Preseason Prop Betting 2019 2020: Playoff Specials Part 3

We hit the first few teams on our NBA Playoff Prop list last week and we’ll continue with more teams in this preview.  As we’ve noted this is the best time of the year to look for value in futures betting for both basketball and hockey.  Another important concept is to stay focused on value. 

For example, the Los Angeles Clippers are -1500 to make the playoffs.  They likely will, but at a price that has an implied probability of 93.8% there’s just not any value in backing them to do so. It’s also a good idea to be a contrarian in most elements of sports betting but particularly futures betting.  Look to bet against the ‘obvious side’ and particularly if it’s one that has the backing of the ‘public’:

NBA BASKETBALL PLAYOFF SPECIALS

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -350
NO: +290

This is a case where we’re going to take the ‘contrarian’ side and lay a price to do it.  The public has seriously overreacted to the Golden State Warriors losing Kevin Durant in free agency along with the injury to Klay Thompson.  Thompson should be back around the All Star Break.  The public darling LA Clippers are -1500 to make the playoffs.  By that metric, the Warriors should be at least -750 but they’re no longer the ‘trendy team’ and so they’re getting thrown under the bus by the betting public.

BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS—YES -350

HOUSTON ROCKETS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -650
NO: +500

James Harden is an unstoppable force but the Rockets have seriously underachieved in the playoffs.  In the 7 years that Harden has been with Houston they’ve reached the conference finals twice but lost.  Three times they’ve lost in the first round and twice they’ve lost in the conference semifinals.  It remains to be seen how Harden and Russell Westbook will co-exist and after Houston signed guard Eric Gordon to a three year, $54.5 million deal there’s likely not enough cap room to bring in any reserves.  There were only five games separating the Rockets from the #8 Clippers last year and with several non-playoff teams expected to improve—particularly the Lakers and Pelicans—Houston could be lost in the shuffle.  It’s hard not to think that this team has gone as far as they can in it’s current incarnation.

BET HOUSTON ROCKETS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS—NO +500

INDIANA PACERS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -550
NO: +425

The Pacers didn’t sign any big names in free agency but they did bring in some players that will give them better depth throughout the lineup.  The exception is Malcom Brogdon who played with Milwaukee for the past three seasons.  Victor Oladipo is the only thing approximating a ‘big name’ on this Pacers team but this is an extremely talented team that plays exceptional defense.  They should make the playoffs but no interest at this price.

PASS

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: +1500
NO: +1000

The Clippers are the team to beat heading into the 2019-2020 NBA season.  They made a huge splash in the offseason picking up Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with former Portland small forward Maurice Harkless.  It’s almost unfathomable that the Clippers won’t make the playoffs but the price on them to get in is just too high.

PASS

LOS ANGELES LAKERS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -320
NO: +260

With LeBron, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee the Lakers will have the most formidable front court in the league.  The loss of DeMarcus Cousins to injury for the entire season hurts but assuming Howard has his ‘head in the game’ he’ll be a suitable fill in.  Lakers have more depth than they get credit for.  They’ll be in the playoffs and this price should be at least twice what it is.

BET LOS ANGELES LAKERS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS—YES -320