College Football – Week 5 Wise Guy Picks 2019

If you’ve been following the money this season you’d have a good chunk of change in your account. The wise guys did it again last week hitting on two of the three games we followed, and that came after a profitable Week 3. It’s not easy handicapping games and it takes time, so why not let wise guys do the work. Offshore sportsbooks are paying close attention to what wise guys do and when the sharp money strikes, the books react. We can’t always tell what wise guys are up to, but paying close attention to the line and the handle can help you make a smarter wager. And smarter wagers are more often than not winning wagers.

We focused on three games from last week where sharp money moved the line and two came out winners. Wise guys backed the over in the LSU-Vanderbilt game forcing a spike in the total. Didn’t matter, the Tigers eclipsed the number on their own in a 66-38 win. Sharps were all over Michigan State on the spread last week and that turned out to be a winner. Sparty easily covered the closing line in their 31-10 victory. Wise guys don’t get em all right and backing Georgia in its showdown with Notre Dame was a loser. Still winning two-thirds of your bets is going to keep you in the red all season.

The Week 5 college football offers up some great betting opportunities and we’ll take a look at a few games where sharp money has impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite college football team.

College Football Week 5 Wise Guy Picks

Rutgers at Michigan ( -27.5, 48 ), Saturday, Sept. 28, 12 p.m. ET

Each week and each game is different so to be a smart bettor you have to wipe the slate clean. Michigan looked awful in getting trounced by Wisconsin last week and the betting public was all over the 26-points offered to Rutgers on the opening line in a clear reaction to UM’s incompetence. And the Wolverines haven’t wowed anyone with cover losses to Middle Tennessee and Army. All that early action should have moved the spread in favor of the Scarlet Knights, instead the number increased to UM -27.5. Sure looks like wise guys are maize and blue fans this week.

UM has had issues with ranked team on the road, but they are a good club or they wouldn’t have been favored to win the Big Ten East. Jim Harbaugh didn’t forget how to coach and we should see a volatile response from UM this week. And the Wolverines have had their way with Rutgers winning the last four meetings by a combined score of 204-37. Harbaugh took responsibility for not having his team prepared to face the Badgers. You can bet that won’t happen this week. Wise guys are.

Houston at North Texas ( -6, 59.5 ), Saturday, Sept. 28, 8 p.m. ET

Every now and then you see a line that makes you say what the heck. That’s the case in this matchup. Houston opened -2.5 before all hell broke loose in Dana Holgorsen’s world. That’s when starting quarterback D’Eriq King announced he would not play the rest of the season and take a redshirt. This is a huge blow to the Cougars, who are off to a 1-3 start. King’s dual threat ability has produced a rushing and passing touchdown in 15 straight games. But to see the line jump the fence and rise to North Texas -6 is just weird, especially when the Cougars are getting a majority of the action.

We could expect the total to tumble in this situation, but there hasn’t been much movement yet on that number. Wise guys like the Mean Green, who narrowly lost to Cal a few weeks ago and pummeled UTSA in their conference opener last week. That’s still not enough to sway the line as much as it moved making me believe sharps are throwing down on North Texas.

Washington State at Utah ( -5, 56 ), Saturday, Sept. 28, 10 p.m. ET

A clear sign that sharps are at work is when a line or total goes against the public. The over/under for this Pac-12 showdown opened at 59 and 70 percent of the betting public thought that number was too low. With a good chunk siding with the over you’d expect to see the number spike. Instead it decreased by a field goal to 56.

Wise guys don’t expect Anthony Gordon to throw nine touchdown passes in this game against a Utah defense that just got gouged by USC’s backup to the backup. Again, we can’t go off what happened last week and the Utes have a strong defensive club that performs well at home. The teams combined for 52 points in last year’s game and the Cougs aren’t facing UCLA’s defense.

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor