NBA Basketball Betting: Way Too Early NBA Hoop Observations #3

Here’s our final (for now) set of ‘Way Too Early NBA Hoop Observations’.  Our hope is that some of the concepts we’ve thrown around will be valuable in getting ahead of the marketplace in the early days of the NBA betting season.

WAY TOO EARLY NBA HOOP BETTING OBSERVATIONS #3

--LOOK FOR THE PHILADELPHIA 76ERS TO FIZZLE OUT

‘Fizzle out’ might be too strong a term.  Hey, it’s hard coming up with clever subtitles for these observations.  The Philadelphia 76ers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in the early going and the only remaining undefeated team in the league as of Sunday, November 3.  The loss of Jimmy Butler (now in Miami) is going to loom large as the season progresses.  His versatility and athleticism is tough to replace.  The Sixers now need Joel Embiid to play big on both ends.  He’s certainly capable of doing it but only if he’s on the court.  That’s something you can never count on.  He’s something of a ‘head case’ and is injury prone.  He’s now in his fourth season in the NBA and has never played in more than 64 regular season games.  At the time of this writing, he’s suspended for two games due to his scrap last week with Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns.  Once he serves his suspension—he was out against Portland on Saturday and will miss against Phoenix on Monday—he will have played in only 3 of the Sixers’ first 6 games.

Ben Simmons is a serious player and a ridiculous physical matchup for a pointguard at 6’10” 240 pounds.  He’s better when he’s scoring than facilitating and that could be a problem as well.  On a team with a number of players that all want the ball a good distributor is essential.  Simmons really isn’t that guy.  Philly doesn’t have a lot of depth at any position and when their starting five is off the floor they’re vulnerable.  They have a lot of solid but not spectacular players coming off the bench like Trey Burke and Josh Richardson.  A lot of questions about Philadelphia will be answered by the middle part of the month.  They won a nice road victory at Portland on Saturday night but now continue a tough road trip against an improving Phoenix team on Monday, a defensively nasty Utah Jazz team on Wednesday and Denver on Friday.  They’ll return home for a pair of easy matchups at home (Charlotte, Cleveland) before playing another defensively tenacious team on the road in Orlando.  It won’t surprise me if the Sixers are 7-6 by the middle of the month.

--ARE THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES ACTUALLY GOOD THIS YEAR?

The Minnesota Timberwolves are definitely an intriguing team.  They were horrible on the road last year going 11-30 SU away from the Twin Cities.  This miserable away record sealed their fate for another losing season and another year without a playoff appearance.  They’ve got only one playoff appearance in the past 15 years and that was a first round exit 4-1 to Houston in 2017-2018.  That’s the epitome of ‘long suffering’ but the Twolves may have turned the corner.  Lost amid the disappointment of yet another losing year was the Wolves’ impressive performance at home where they went 25-16.  Now in his fifth season former Rookie of the Year and #1 overall draft pick Karl-Anthony Towns is finally looking like a franchise player.  He’s always had the numbers but he’s starting to show the confident swagger of a legit NBA superstar.  Last year, KAT went for 27.3 PPG, 11.5 RPB, 2.5 steals per game, 1.8 blocks per game and 4 assists per game.  That’s pretty impressive.  He’s got some decent talent around him as well including rookie shooting guard Jarrett Culver who was the #6 overall pick in the 2019 draft.  The Timberwolves remain a ‘work in progress’ but if they can improve upon their road record they could be back in the mix for a playoff spot.  The Western Conference is almost insanely competitive but Minnesota could be a good team that gets overlooked by opponents.  They’re 4-1 so far and just a half game back of the LA Lakers in the conference standings.

They’re definitely a team worth watching.  They host Milwaukee on Monday night but Karl-Anthony Towns is suspended due to his highly publicized fight with Joel Embiid last week.  They play 7 of their next 10 games at home facing some tough opponents including San Antonio, Houston, Utah and Denver.  They also play at Memphis and Detroit—both winnable games—along with a very tough game in Salt Lake City against the Jazz.  If they can navigate this stretch successfully they might be ready to break their long playoff drought.  At the very least, they’ll be worth a look from a betting standpoint—they’re still considered a ‘bad team’ by the betting public who won’t catch on to their dramatic improvement until well after everyone else has.  Definitely a team worth a look getting points.