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The Under looks like the play for the Week 13 Sunday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans. A lot of it has to do with Tom Brady.
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What: New England Patriots (10-1) vs. Houston Texans (7-4)
When: Sunday, December 1 at 8:20 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium
Coverage: NBC
You can't outrun time and at 42 years old, Tom Brady is starting to regress. Not like Peyton Manning did in 2015 but Brady isn't playing better than last year or 2017. Football Outsiders ranks Brady 12th with an 8.7 percent passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This metric represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. For reference, his former backup Jimmy Garoppolo is 13th.
Brady showing decline plus a Texans defense that allows just 22.6 points per game = Under. The total is sitting at 45.5 at some sportsbooks. Could it be even higher as we get closer to kickoff?
As for the Texans, Deshaun Watson will start at quarterback and while he may not be having an MVP-caliber season, he is an elite quarterback in this league, even with a 15.9 percent passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which by the way is still better than Brady's.
Watson will test the New England defense and could jeopardize this NFL pick but the Under is 7-4 for the Texans this season, including 4-0 in their last four games, even without J.J. Watt (torn pec), a former Defensive Player of the Year. Also, the Under is 8-3 for the Patriots this season.
Free NFL Pick: Under 45.5
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