College Basketball Betting – Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears

• Baylor is a -7.5 favorite versus Texas Tech for Monday night's game

• Bookmaker has not moved off the -7.5 as of late morning Monday

• Red Raiders stumbling at the wrong time can ill afford to lose this game

• Bears already in the NCAA Tournament but now just a matter of seeding

• Bookmaker is offering welcome bonus with a maximum of $1000

One year after reaching the NCAA Tournament championship game, the Texas Tech Red Raiders find themselves in a difficult situation. Losers of two in a row, they face the top teams in the Big 12 to close out the regular season beginning Monday with a trip to Waco to face the Baylor Bears, and suddenly a ticket to the dance isn’t a guarantee. Baylor has some figuring out to do as well after dropping two of three to lose the top spot in the conference and the No. 1 ranking in the country. The Bears squeaked out a five-point win when the teams met in early January.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears

Date and Time: Monday, March 2, 2020, 9 p.m. ET

Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX

Opening College Basketball Odds: Baylor -7.5, O/U 129.5

Texas Tech at Baylor TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

A ticket to the NCAA Tournament looked like a done deal about a week ago. Following consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Texas and with games against Baylor and Kansas coming up, extending the season beyond the Big 12 tournament suddenly isn’t a given. With losses in two straight and in three of their last five, the Red Raiders are stumbling at the wrong time. Their overall record fell to 18-11 and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five. Baylor is locked in with an overall record of 25-3, but they too have a hit a speed bump with two losses in their last three games. The Bears beat Tech 57-52 on Jan. 7, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. They’ve been a good wager this season at 18-10 ATS.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

With a number of pieces from last year’s national runner-up team no longer around, coach Chris Beard said before the season that it would be a bumpy ride. He’s right about that. Saturday’s matchup with Texas mirrored the season so far: offensive struggles and inconsistent play on both ends of the floor. And the Red Raiders close the regular season with games against the top teams in the conference that could have them staring at a four-game skid heading into the Big 12 Tournament.

One thing Texas Tech has done over the last few years is surprise folks. Nobody saw that run to the national championship game coming last year. And this group will have to look for something to gain momentum and put them on the right path. The Red Raiders hung around in their loss to Baylor back in January but the inability to score proved fatal. Tech was held to 52 points in the loss and five times in Big 12 play they failed to score 60 points, including their last two.

One player who has taken over on the offensive side is freshman Jahmi’us Ramsey, who leads the team with 15.5 points per game. Ramsey averages nearly 4.0 points per game below his season average in the nine losses he’s played in. And for a team that scores fewer than 70 points a game in Big 12 play that’s alarming.

Baylor Bears

The Bears are going to the NCAA Tournament it’s just a matter of seeding now. They were in line for a No. 1 seed and could still get there depending on how things pan out during the final regular season games and the conference tournament. This has been a strange season around the country with a numerous teams slotted at the top of the national rankings and big time programs losing a bunch of games. Baylor reeled off 23 straight wins before losing twice in their last three games, but it’s too early to give up on them.

The strength of the team is defense, and when that doesn’t work the results are damaging. We saw that in the loss to TCU on Saturday. No teams had scored more than 70 points against the Bears since November until the Horned Frogs erupted for 75 with 54 of them coming in the second half. The Bears had held eight Big 12 opponents to 55 points of fewer and they rank fifth nationally yielding 59.3 points per game.

Baylor isn’t deep and that could cause problems down the road. They get a lot of mileage from the starters with only one reserve averaging more than 7.0 points per game. The backcourt of Jared Butler and MaCio Teague is the backbone with the two topping the team in scoring while running the pressure defense. Scott Drew used only eight players on Saturday and fatigue could have led to their 42.9 percent field goal shooting.

Bet Texas Tech at Baylor at BookMaker.eu

This is a huge game for Tech’s chances of earning an at-large bid to the dance. It’s all big for Baylor after scuffling of late. The Bears are allowed to have an off-night defensively since they’ve been good all season. I’m thinking Saturday’s outcome is an aberration and I expect the D to be on lockdown mode against a team that’s struggled recently to score the basketball.

College Basketball Score Prediction: Baylor 64, Texas Tech 59

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com