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The Serie A is finally back! The games are being played behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic and we will have an intriguing contest on Friday, when Juventus hosts Lecce.
Juventus is in first place in the Serie A standings with 66 points in 27 games while Lecce is 18th with 25 points in 27 games, fighting to avoid relegation. Juventus beat Bologna 2-0 on the road last Monday while Lecce lost 4-1 against AC Milan at home, also on Monday.
Let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.
Betting Odds By payperhead247
Team to Win (Regular Time)
Juventus: -667
Lecce: +1225
Draw: +689
Spread
Juventus: -2¼ (-115)
Lecce: +2¼ (-106)
Total
Over 3.5 (-104)
Under 3.5 (-118)
Key Points to Consider
Last 6:
Juventus, coming off a 2-0 road win against Bologna, have three wins, two draws and one loss in their last six overall. Lecce, coming off a 4-1 home loss vs AC Milan, have three wins, three losses and zero draws in their last six overall.
Momentum: Lecce has been on a downward trend -- losing their last three games in the Serie A.
Head-to-Head: These two teams last met up in Serie A action on October 26, 2019 and they played to a 1-1 draw.
Projected Leaders
Simulations I have run project Cristiano Ronaldo, Paulo Dybala, Miralem Pjanic, Matthijs de Ligt and Gianluca Lapadula as the players most likely to score (four of these five players are from Juventus).
There is a 7.2 percent chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Juventus, at 91.0 percent, are heavy favorites to beat Lecce, who have a 1.9 percent chance to win on the road.
The leading scorer for Juventus is Cristiano Ronaldo with an 83.06 percent chance of getting one or more goals. When he has at least one goal, Juventus has a 95 percent chance to win.
Lecce is reeling and there's a reason why they're in 18th place. You can expect them to be desperate for at least a point but Juventus also needs the win in order to stay in first place. Juventus is on another level, I will take them on the goal line.
Soccer Pick: Juventus -2¼ (-115)
