NFL Betting – Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
You would expect an offensive show when quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees face each other. So far they’ve delivered for over bettors with each team playing above the closing total in their first two games. The future Hall-of-Famers go at it on Week 3 Sunday Night Football when the undefeated Green Bay Packers visit the New Orleans Saints. Behind Rodgers the Packers lead the NFL in yards and points, a spot familiar to the Saints over the years. New Orleans is coming off a Monday night loss in Las Vegas and opened each of the previous two campaigns with a 1-1 record before reeling off a bunch of wins. Will history repeat itself? The Saints are a 3-point favorite on the current NFL betting line. Bookmaker offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000).
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Date and Time: Sunday, September 27, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
NFL Odds: Saints -3, O/U 53
Packers at Saints TV Coverage: NBC
Odds Analysis
Seeing the Packers open at +4.5 was too good for some early bettors. Early action on the visitors moved the line down to +3, though it’s still favorable considering how well Green Bay has played. The Pack crushed Minnesota 43-34 in the opener getting a point on the line. They rallied last week outscoring Detroit 39-7 over the final three quarters for an eventual 42-21 win laying 7-points. Continuing a nice run from last season, Green Bay is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last nine games. The only setback was at San Francisco in last season’s NFC Championship game. It’s been a rockier start for the Saints, which is nothing new. They couldn’t get off the field last week blowing a 10-0 lead in the 34-24 loss, falling to 1-1 SU and ATS. The total opened at 54.5 and has since been wagered to 53. The teams cashed the OVER in eight of the last nine encounters.
Green Bay Packers
It’s not just Rodgers leading the offense these days. Sure he’s the main part of the group, but getting help from the NFL’s leading rusher means the Packers don’t have to rely on the passing attack. That’s a good thing this week since top receiver Davante Adams has practiced all week after leaving the Detroit game with a hamstring injury. Adams missed four games last season and still had 83 receptions, 34 more than second-place Aaron Jones. In fact, Adams caught more than twice as many as Allen Lazard, the next closest receiver on the club.
You can see how important the ground game has become for the Packers. Jones was all over the place against the Lions averaging 9.3 yards on his 18 carries with a pair of touchdowns. In addition he led the team with four catches and 68 yards with another score. Jamal Williams had 63 rush yards and the Pack totaled 259 on 35 attempts.
Rodgers had a quiet game by his standards completing 18 of 30 for 240 yards and two touchdowns. He’s thrown for 604 yards with six TDs, no interceptions and a 119.4 rating. Through two games the Packers are averaging 505 total yards and 42.5 points without committing a turnover.
New Orleans Saints
It wasn’t the offense that let the Saints down on Monday as much as it was the defense. Brees did throw a bad interception late in the first half that led to the Raiders’ game tying field-goal. But the Saints just couldn’t get off the field. Las Vegas possessed the football for more than 36 minutes by converting 10 of 17 third downs and both fourth down opportunities. A number of silly penalties also proved deadly. Five defensive fouls helped extend Vegas drives and the Saints were flagged a total of 10 times for 129 yards.
Brees had better numbers than in Week 1 throwing for 312 yards and touchdown on 26 of 38 passing. The absence of Michael Thomas was evident, though. Brees targeted wide receivers 15 times, a number that Thomas frequently neared last season. Thomas was targeted 12 or more times in eight games on his way to setting the NFL season record with 149 receptions. Brees was hesitant getting the ball down the field without his top receiver.
Much like the Packers have utilized Jones, the Saints will sneak Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. Kamara had 79 yards on 13 rush attempts along with team-highs of nine receptions and 95 yards. Kamara currently ranks seventh in the NFL in scrimmage yards while Jones leads the circuit.
Bet Packers at Saints BookMaker.eu
The Packers can’t maintain their current offensive pace, which is why I’m leaning toward taking the UNDER. The Saints have a strong defense as long as they don’t self-destruct, which is what happened last week, they will be a handful. And Brees will figure things out.
NFL Score Prediction: Saints 28, Packers 23
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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com
