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As Election Day turned into the early morning hours of Wednesday and current US President Donald Trump enjoyed a commanding lead in states such as Pennsylvania, the online bookmakers the likes of BetOnline reacted by making the GOP candidate a -1000 or greater favorite.
The Election was over, or so it seemed.
Trump pointed this out on Wednesday, claiming he could not have lost the Election because of the so-called "bookies", adding they had given him a 97% chance of victory.
At 10:00 P.M. on Election Evening, we were at 97% win with the so-called “bookies”.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 9, 2020
Heading into Election Day, however, most of the books had Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden as a -200 or greater favorite.
Once the Election results began pouring in, BetOnline shifted to live in-play wagering. This type of betting reflects the current status of a contest and the prices fluctuate wildly as a result. If, for example, the Pittsburgh Steelers come into a game against the Baltimore Ravens as a +3 underdog and start out by scoring the first three touchdowns going up 21-0, books adjust the odds to make Pittsburgh a big favorite to win. The action coming in will help to further inflate that price. Assuming the Ravens come back to tie the game and ultimately win it, the line will once again move in favor of Baltimore.
In the case of this year's Presidential Elections, the betting public was all over Trump winning when the initial results were tabulated for the critical battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It then became apparent that mail-in votes were yet to be counted and that those would overwhelmingly favor Biden. As the day progressed Wednesday, the line once again shifted in favor of the Democratic candidate. Individuals were able to continue placing bets based on the constantly adjusting prices.
Trump can also point to the books reluctance to grade Biden bets as winners. He hasn't as of yet.
Dave Mason of BetOnline explained the rationale for this via a tweet.
Election bets will remain pending for the time-being.
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 7, 2020
There will most likely be recounts in a few of these states. Additionally, there will be legal challenges from Trump.
Hopefully we can grade them soon, but we need to be patient.
Thanks
The bookmakers would have graded these bets by now had Trump conceded a lost election.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
