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It’s no secret the Super Bowl is the most-bet sporting event in the U.S. each year. With more U.S. states legalizing sports gambling, Super Bowl LV will most likely become the most wagered football game ever.
While many bettors will jump in on the moneyline, spread, and game total; there is one Super Bowl LV top bet - the game MVP.
Super Bowl MVP History
More often than not, a quarterback will walk away with the Super Bowl MVP award. Last year, it was Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and three of the last four MVPs have all been quarterbacks.
One of those three was Tom Brady, now of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mahomes is the favorite at -106 to win a second straight MVP while Brady is listed at +210.
If you go back to 2004 when Brady won his second Super Bowl MVP, 11 times the award has gone to a quarterback.
Mahomes or Brady
It’s almost a given that if you’re the Super Bowl-winning quarterback and throw for at least 250 yards and a couple touchdowns you will win the game’s MVP.
The numbers, in this case, just don’t work. Yes, Mahomes and Brady are the safe prop bets, but since 2004 there have been four wide receivers and two linebackers win the MVP.
Real Value
A running back hasn’t won the award since 1998 when Terrell Davis took the honors. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+2800) hasn’t been a huge part of the Chiefs offense in the postseason.
On the other side, Leonard Fournette (+2500) just hasn’t put up the kind of numbers that you would see from a Super Bowl MVP. Could he? Sure, but it’s not likely.
What’s more likely is Brady or Mahomes focusing on one of their top targets and that target has a day to remember.
For the Bucs, it might be WR Mike Evans (+3000) or WR Chris Godwin (+3000). Godwin had a big game in the NFC title game with five catches for 110 yards, but he didn’t score a touchdown. Either one could come through with a big game for Tampa Bay.
Last week we wrote an article titled, “What we are betting this weekend”. Go check it out and tell us how we did.
Super Bowl LV Top Bet
The best bet on the MVP comes down to one of two Kansas City stars. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has been on fire in the postseason setting a franchise record for most catches in a single playoff game. He also has three touchdowns in two postseason games.
Then, there is WR Tyreek Hill. Hill had 170 receiving yards in the AFC championship game win over Buffalo. He also had 17 total touchdowns during the regular season.
Kelce is listed at +1300 to win the MVP; Hill at +1200.
Hill is your top bet. He will have the opportunity to touch the ball on jet sweeps as well as in the passing game. His speed and dynamic big-play ability are what allowed him to score three touchdowns in the Bucs-Chiefs regular season game this year.
Look for him to have a huge day again and win the Super Bowl LV MVP.
