CFB Betting – Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini - August 28

The Big Ten gets a head start on the rest of the Power 5 when the college football season opens with a conference matchup between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Illinois Fighting Illini. The Scott Frost era in Lincoln hasn’t gone according to plan and this is likely a make or break, do or die, or any other cliché you can come up with for a coach who needs to produce a winning campaign. Expectations are always high for the Huskers despite them winning just 12 games in the first three seasons of Frost’s tenure.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Date and Time: Saturday, August 28, 2021, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
CFB Odds: Nebraska -7, O/U 55
Nebraska at Illinois TV Coverage: FOX

Odds Analysis

Last season shouldn’t count against Frost and the Huskers since it was a weird year in so many ways. Still, they played an abbreviated schedule and it resulted in the fourth straight losing campaign for Big Red, something almost unheard of in these parts. To say there is pressure on Frost to turn things around is a massive understatement. The Huskers went 3-5 last season with one of those setbacks to Illinois, 41-23, where they were favored by 17-points. If that doesn’t put you on the hot seat nothing will. The line is tempered a bit this year with Nebraska laying 7-points. We probably won’t see much movement since this is the opener and we haven’t been able to gauge the teams. Illinois was 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS last season and will be starting over once again with new coach Bret Bielema.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

When Frost was hired before the 2018 season it was expected that at this point the Huskers would be competing for conference titles. After all the former Nebraska quarterback had just put together one of the finest seasons by a Group of Five club in sometime leading UCF to an undefeated record and Peach Bowl victory. Three years in and Frost is looking for his first winning season.

Frost knows the importance of strong quarterback play and he should have that this season with Adrian Martinez back at the helm. As many as eight starters are back from a group that averaged 391 yards per game in 2020. There is no threat of Luke McCaffrey taking over so the job belongs to Martinez. And the hope is that he becomes the guy Frost expected him to be. The offense wasn’t bad last year. Martinez rushed for a team-high 521 yards and completed 71.5 percent of his passes.

What killed Nebraska in last year’s loss was the pass defense. Illinois dropped bombs all over the place and the Huskers had no answer. It was a problem in other games as well. As a whole the group looks stronger and a more consistent pass rush will help the secondary. This could be the best defensive unit Frost has had and it should help them get off to a good start in what is an important year for them.

Illinois Fighting Illini

After five years and only 17 wins under Lovie Smith, the Illini have moved in another direction. And they took it to the extreme. Smith was hired with no college coaching experience. Now, Bielema, who won 74 percent of his games in seven years at Wisconsin, takes over. I guess the biggest question is just how the Illini will look on offense. Bielema’s success with the Badgers was based on dominance in the trenches and a bruising ground game. That could work eventually, but this club needs to form an identity after years of scuffling under the old regime.

Last season was a failure in every aspect. Illinois averaged just over 20 points to rank 112th in the 128-team FBS. They also surrendered nearly 35 points per game to finish 97th. They do have a starting point at being better offensively. New coordinator Tony Petersen is versed in the passing game and he has Brandon Peters under center.

Peters split time at the position last season throwing for 429 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Nearly half of those yards came in the win over Nebraska when he was 18 of 25 for 205 yards and a score. The passing game has to be better, though, after QBs combined to complete only 47 percent of their throws. Stopping the run will be a key. Illinois was last in the Big Ten in run defense and you can bet they’ll get tested by Nebraska’s gifted backs.

Bet Nebraska at Illinois at BookMaker.eu

The Huskers have experience at key positions and a defense that could be the best in Frost’s tenure. And you know they are still stinging from that shellacking by the Illini last year. Bielema knows the Big Ten West as well as anyone and is a good hire, but it’s going to take time for him to get the program where it wants to be. I have to give the points and back the visitors in his one.

CFB Score Prediction: Nebraska 31, Illinois 20

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com