Recall Election Odds for Newsom, Vote Margin and Elder/Jenner Vote Share

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election is Tuesday, and the political betting markets aren't projecting a changing of the guard.

Online bookmaker SportsBetting.ag set odds for the chances that Governor Gavin Newsom is removed from office. The option of "Yes" is the heavy underdog with +700, or 7-1, odds.

Will Gavin Newsom be removed as CA Governor?

Yes +700

No -2000

The above odds imply a 95.2% probability that Newsom WILL NOT be removed from office.

Other odds for the recall election include the voting margin to "keep" or "not keep" Newsom as governor.

Also, the share of recall vote for Larry Elder and Caitlyn Jenner are available in the form of over/under odds.

Vote margin to keep Newsom as CA Governor

Over/Under 14%

Larry Elder share of recall vote

Over/Under 31.5%

Caitlyn Jenner share of recall vote

Over/Under 1%

Finally, there are the odds for who will be California Governor on December 31, 2022:

Gavin Newsom            -2000  

Larry Elder                   +725   

Kevin Paffrath             +3000 

Kevin Faulconer          +6500 

Caitlyn Jenner             +10000           

John Cox                      +20000           

Kevin Kiley                  +25000