Written by :
Published on :
The undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats are a +13.5 underdog in their Cotton Bowl game against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Should the Bearcats somehow beat mighty Alabama, the payout is $430 on a $100 bet.
We do have an overlay of around four points here but that is sometimes an indication that the favorite will win by well more than the spread.
Cincinnati has not had a great record as an underdog since 2018. It's rare that they've been in this situation but the Bearcats have gone 3-5 Straight Up as an away underdog. Compare that to their 40-0 record as a favorite. They are, however, 5-0 Against The Spread in their last 5 games as an underdog.
The Bearcats are also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Crimson Tide are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
This is Alabama's seventh semifinal appearance in the eight seasons of the four-team CFP. But the Tide almost didn't make it here if not for Heisman Trophy winning-quarterback Bryce Young leading a late game-tying, 97-yard TD drive in the regular-season finale against Auburn that ended in an overtime win.
"It's always challenging when you come off of winning a championship for players to have the same hunger, to have a sense of urgency to prove something," said Alabama coach Nick Saban, who has six national titles the past 12 seasons. "But because we were young, I think it took this team a little longer to maybe respond on a consistent basis like we wanted them to."
Alabama is just barely making a profit for sports bettors this season at 7-6 Against The Spread. A failure to cover here would essentially be a wash.
Cincinnati has been profitable, but not to the degree one might think. They've failed to cover in five games this season.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
