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There’s one nationally-televised game Friday night as Central Florida hosts Louisville on ESPN. The Knights are a -6 point favorite.
Louisville at UCF (-6, 61.5)
63.6% of $ on UFC -6
56.5% of $ on OVER 61.5
Sagarin has UCF -7 and even potentially rounded off to -7.5.
Below is the BetOnline line movement (opened September 4).
BetOnline Line (Home) Over / Under
09/04/22 3:04:13 PM-6-110+61.5-110
09/04/22 3:10:43 PM-5-105+61.5-110
09/04/22 3:17:46 PM-5-110+61.5-110
09/04/22 4:04:39 PM-6-115+61.5-110
09/04/22 5:39:45 PM-7-115+61.5-110
09/04/22 5:45:26 PM-7-110+61.5-110
09/04/22 5:51:06 PM-7-105+61.5-110
09/04/22 5:56:49 PM-6.5-107+61.5-110
09/04/22 6:02:44 PM-6.5-110+61.5-110
09/05/22 3:37:45 PM-6.5-105+61.5-110
09/05/22 4:17:27 PM-6.5-110+61.5-110
09/05/22 6:35:56 PM-6.5-110+62-110
09/05/22 8:44:48 PM-6.5-108+62-110
09/06/22 12:35:04 AM-6.5-110+62-110
09/06/22 9:43:20 AM-6.5-110+61.5-110
09/06/22 2:14:00 PM-6-110+61.5-110
09/06/22 7:01:40 PM-6-110+61-105
09/06/22 7:57:30 PM-6-110+61-110
09/06/22 8:11:20 PM-6-115+61-110
09/07/22 1:21:23 AM-6.5-110+61-110
09/07/22 7:06:20 AM-6.5-108+61-110
09/07/22 10:01:45 AM-6-110+61-110
09/07/22 10:15:22 AM-5.5-110+61-110
09/07/22 12:46:45 PM-5.5-110+61.5-110
09/08/22 5:21:27 PM-5.5-110+61.5-112
09/08/22 5:28:56 PM-5.5-110+61.5-110
09/09/22 12:59:14 AM-5.5-110+61.5-115
09/09/22 1:13:41 AM-5.5-115+61.5-115
09/09/22 8:40:13 AM-6-110+61.5-115
09/09/22 10:28:31 AM-5.5-110+61.5-108
09/09/22 11:17:17 AM-5.5-111+61.5-108
09/09/22 11:32:04 AM-6-110+61.5-108
09/09/22 2:33:06 PM-6-110+61.5-110
09/09/22 2:42:25 PM-6-110+61.5-111
09/09/22 2:51:23 PM-6-110+61.5-113
09/09/22 2:58:59 PM-6-110+61.5-110
BetOnline had this one at -6.5 for better than 24 hours, so there appears to be an opinion here encouraging more action coming in on UCF, even though the Knights are seeing less lopsided action than most books.
Louisville may actually cover here. UCF has only lost once at home as a favorite since 2017, so we'll take them on the Double Result Central Florida/Central Florida for just -110. They are also at -200 on the moneyline.
South Carolina @ Arkansas - Bets in by 12 pm ET Saturday
Early Line Movement (Within 48 hours of Release) - Arkansas opens -8.5, jumps to -9.5 then down to 7.5 over first 7 hours.
09/04/22 3:28:52 PM-8.5-110+52-110
09/04/22 4:15:35 PM-9.5-110+52-110
09/04/22 4:39:34 PM-9.5-110+52.5-110
09/04/22 5:39:47 PM-9-105+52.5-110
09/04/22 5:45:28 PM-8.5-105+52.5-110
09/04/22 7:08:16 PM-8-105+52.5-110
09/04/22 10:37:41 PM-7.5-110+52.5-110
Recreational Books Trending (Friday September 9) - Opened -9, down to -7.5, back up to -9.
Sharp Books Trending (Friday September 9) -9.5 to -8.5 approaching closing.
Spread Action (Friday September 9) - 80% of the action on the -9, where most books were sitting Friday afternoon.
Sagarin - Arkansas (21) 80.43 rating, South Carolina (49) 74.13 rating = Arkansas -8/-8.5.
A telltale sign here is that Bookmaker still had the number at -8.5.
The sharps appeared to get down heavy on the Gamecocks early, driving that number down to -7.5 (from -9).
None of the books went below the 7.5 number.
Be mindful here that South Carolina has Georgia coming up next week. They will need to win this one bad.
No suprise if South Carolina covers here at +9.
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
