Written by :
Published on :
Clearly, the line on the Tennessee vs. LSU game on October 8 is favoring the wrong team.
That's not to take anything away from the Vols. After all, they are 4-0 Straight Up and 3-1 Against The Spread compared to the Tigers at 3-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.
The Volunteers are coming in as the -3 point favorite with the line briefly tapping on the -2.5 at times at some books.
Gambling911.com, using the powerful Sagarin ratings, gets a number of LSU 3.83.
In games we have analyzed this season, the wrong team favored has only covered 5 times in 14 games.
Even possible injuries do not explain the line variance, which is around a 7-point overlay.
Louisiana State's Sevyn Banks suffered an apparent neck injury on the opening kickoff. Banks is expected to be out 5-6 weeks as he recovers. A transfer from Ohio State, Banks was expected to play a key role as a depth piece in the secondary.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels was also injured but is expected to play on Saturday.
We studied a few comparable games to see what might happen.
The relatively steady 3 without going over that number has been less common than one might think this season. In fact, we really haven't seen it in key games.
A stable -2.5 point road favorite we've seen on two occasions. One was Mississippi State in a game against LSU and the other North Dakota State. The dog covered in both of those and the Mississippi State vs. LSU game featured an overlay similar to the Tennessee-LSU game of 7 points. And guess what? The wrong team was favored in that one as well. LSU should have been favored. Not only did the Tigers cover, they beat the Bulldogs badly.
In the North Dakota State vs. Arizona game, the Wildcats covered and won by 3 points. Arizona should have been favored here and there was a 3.5 overlay.
A lot of the experts see Tennessee winning but believe the game will be close, mostly a field goal win.
These teams haven't played one another since 2017.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
