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(November 25, 2022) - The SMU Mustangs (6-5 Straight Up, 5-6 Against The Spread) were set to host Memphis. The Tigers have beaten the Mustangs in seven of the last eight meetings coming into this one.
What's Next for SMU
The line on this game has hovered between 3.5 and 4.5 favoring SMU mostly. We get a number of 0.28 with the Mustangs just barely favored. There is an overlay of between 3 and 4 points on this one.
Overlays with the number 3 as a base have gone 10-30 for the favorite, making Memphis an enticing play.
Even more tempting perhaps, overlays have gone 4-15 for the favorite when the number has been 3/3.5 at any point without drifting below the 3.
With Memphis' solid record against SMU, the Tigers are a good play here at +5 if you can get them at that number.
Prior Line and Cover Trends
It's interesting to note that three of the SMU games we monitored this season had moved between the 3.5 and 2.5. The home team covered in all three.
September 24
TCU -1.5 to -2.5 SMU (favorite TCU covers and wins by 8) TCU 5.78 Underlay of 3 to 4
This Season's Comparables:
Underlay of 3 to 4 Range
Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia State (favorite Coastal Carolina covers and wins by a lot) Coastal Carolina 6.00 Underlay 3.5 points
Minnesota -2 to 3 MSU (favorite Minnesota covers with big win) Minnesota 5.73 Underlay 3 to 4
September 17
SMU +3.5 to +2.5 Maryland (home favorite Maryland Covers by 7) 4.64 Underlay 1 to 2 points
This Season's Comparables:
Line Move (two of these games also featured the Mustangs):
Penn State -3.5 to -2.5 Auburn (Favorite Penn State huge cover and win) Penn 12.61 (power ratings likely shifted dramatically for Auburn) Underlay of 9 to 10.
Washington -3.5 to -2.5 UCLA (home dog UCLA covers and wins) Washington 6.53 - Underlay of 3.5 to 4.5
SMU +3.5 to +2.5 UCF (home favorite UCF covers big) UCF 10.96 Underlay 7 to 8 points
Cincinnati -3.5 to -2.5 SMU (home dog SMU covers with Cincinnati 2-point win) Cin 1.1 Overlay of 1.5 to 2.5 pointsFlorida +3.5 to +2.5 Texas A&M (road dog Florida covers and wins big) Texas A&M 4.23 Underlay of 1 to 2 points
Underlay 1 to 2 Point Range
Florida +3.5 to +2.5 Texas A&M (road dog Florida covers and wins big) Texas A&M 4.23 Underlay of 1 to 2 points
SMU +3.5 to +2.5 Maryland (Favorite Maryland Covers by 7) 4.64 Underlay 1 to 2 points
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
