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The 8-5 Miami Dolphins travel to Orchard Park, NY, opposing the Buffalo Bills Saturday night. Both teams seem primed to make the playoffs, with the homestanding 10-3 Bills looking to all but wrap the AFC East. Buffalo is a solid 8½-point favorite (total at 42), according to NFL odds.
Dolphins Lost Last Couple
The Miami Dolphins are going in the opposite direction as the Bills, having lost their last two games. Miami went to California, and it was a fruitless trip. The Fish were on the short end to both the San Francisco 49ers (33-17) and Los Angeles Chargers (23-17). Before that, the Dolphins had been one of the hottest in the NFL, with five wins in a row.
In order to beat the Bills a second time this season (21-19 at home in Week 3), Miami needs more explosiveness on offense, as 17 points (see last two games) just won’t suffice. Miami’s ineffectiveness against a less-than-healthy defense of the Bolts should be concerning.
They will need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, along with wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to make big plays if the visitors are to have any shot of completing a improbable season sweep.
Bills After Fifth Straight
Buffalo hasn’t done anything to change its narrative as the best team in the NFL. Remaining as favorites to win the title, the Bills are priced at 4-1, or +400, as per Super Bowl odds.They have won four games in a row, grinding out a 20-12 “elements” decision over the visiting New York Jets last Sunday.
The Bills are a top-10 team in both rushing and passing yards per game, third in points per game (26.5). The team is winning as quarterback Josh Allen navigates an injured elbow. It's difficult to find a true weakness here. Their season is defined by “Super Bowl or Bust,” however.
Bills to Win, But…
Buffalo in December is not fun. It won’t be if you’re the Miami Dolphins. While the Bills are riding a four-game win streak and the Dolphins have lost their last couple. Miami will be sufficiently desperate to keep this close. Try the warm-weather ‘Fins plus the points.
Looking at the total, though the teams only had a combined 40 points in their earlier meeting in South Florida, Miami needs to regain swagger with a struggling offense. It’s also the team’s last shot at staying close atop the AFC East. This will be a higher-scoring game than anticipated, despite the weather (precipitation with temperatures right around freezing). Take the over.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
