Analyzing Gambling911's 12-7 Bowl Performance in 2022-23

We are super excited to announce that Gambling911.com has documented its 12-7 (63.1%) record for this past college football bowl game season.  We crunched the numbers and came up with our strategic picks.  Let's see what went right and what went wrong with our college bowl betting strategy.

One key here is not to focus on the early month number.  We only monitored the number the week leading up to a particular game without focusing on the game day line.

What came through big were overlays where the line was 3/3.5 (5-0) and overlays of 4.5 or greater (4-1).

Two of our losers fell in the 9.5/10/10.5 range.

A bit of a surprise was that we had the 2.5/3 underlays go 1-2.  This was actually a pretty good spot for the favorites this season although both those losses were quite close.  The 2.5/3 overlay we had was also a loser, and a bad one at that. 

Dogs in the 2.5/3 range went 15-4 Against The Spread during the regular season and ended up 1-3 ATS during the bowl season.  Go figure.

2.5/3 (Underlays)

Winners

Arizona Bowl - Ohio vs. Wyoming - The line moved from -1 to -2.5 favoring Ohio.  We got a number of 5.37, indicating an underlay of 3 to as much as 4.5.   The favorite tended to do well in this position and that's exactly what happened here with Ohio just squeaking by with the 3-point victory.

Losers

Liberty Bowl - KU vs. Arkansas - This game featured a line of Arkansas -2.5/-3 depending on the book and the time in which it was bet.  We got a number of 5.84, suggesting a 3 to 3.5 underlay.  Though a relatively small sampling, the favorite has gone 8-1 Against The Spread in this line range where an underlay is evident.  Interestingly enough, KU was the one dog with line out of whack due to the quarterback of Oklahoma State (their opponent) showing up on the injured list last minute.  Arkansas won but just missed the cover by a half point in overtime (55-53).  If you bet them the day of the game, you'd be a winner since the line ultimately closed at -1.5.  Yeah, it's a loser, just not a bad loser.

Cotton Bowl - Tulane vs. USC - The line had been alternating (not trending) between -1.5 / 2.5 Trojans over the course of the week leading up to this game.  The number range varied between books.  Our own number was Southern California 5.63.  That translated into an underlay of 3 to 4 points.  That had us liking the favorite but USC did not come through and Tulane did walk away with the 1-point victory. 

2.5/3 (Overlays)

Losers

Music City Bowl - Iowa vs. Kentucky - The line was Iowa -2.5.  We got a number of Hawkeyes 0.60, indicating an overlay of 2 points. In our sampling of games that stayed in the 2.5 to 3 region without crossing the 3, dogs went 15-4 Against The Spread. That had us all over Kentucky for obvious reasons but they failed us in a 21-0 shutout.  Bad loss.

2.5/3/3.5 (Underlays)

Winners

Gator Bowl - Notre Dame vs. South Carolina - The line on this game had been Notre Dame -2.5 to -3.5.  Earlier in the month, the number opened at -3.5.  This is a classic example of a line that crosses in either directly beyond the critical number 3.

We got a number of 7.46 here favoring the Irish. That is around a 4-point underlay. It should be noted that underlays with a base of 3 have generally gone in favor of the favorite (18-4) though this was not necessarily the case for games where the line appeared below and above the 3 (i.e. 2.5 to 3.5).  We still went with Notre Dame and it paid off.  They delivered the 45-38 victory.

3.5/3 (Overlays)

Winners

Camelia Bowl - Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo - The line went from Georgia Southern -3.5 to -4.5.  We get a number of Eagles 1.4. This suggested a 2 to 3 point overlay.  In our sampling of games 3/3.5 without dipping below the 3, the dog had gone 20-5.  Buffalo wins by two points despite being the underdog.

Idaho Bowl - EMU vs. SJSU - Eastern Michigan was the +3.5 dog here.  Our number came in at SJSU 1.56, suggesting an overlay of two points here. Overlays in games where the line stays at 3 or above but does touch the 3.5 had gone 20-5 for the dog and that's exactly what transpired here as EMU enjoyed the big 41-27 win as a dog.

Quick Lane Bowl - New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green - The Aggies have been +3 to +4 underdogs throughout much of the month of December, though the spread on this game initially opened with New Mexico State as the -1.5 favorite.  Our number was Bowling Green 1.09.  That suggested a 2 to 3 point overlay.  In our sampling for the year, dogs had gone 5-20 Against The Spread in games where the line has stayed above 3 and hit the 3.5. New Mexico was our play and they won outright 24-19.

Texas Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss - Texas Tech had been a +3.5 dog much of the way leading up to this bowl game. Technically we got Ole Miss 0.94 but it can be argued the wrong team is favored here as Texas Tech should have had the home field advantage.  We'd actually consider this a 4.5 to 5.5 overlay and these have very much gone in favor of the dog, Texas Tech being the dog.  Texas Tech won big 42-25.

Sun Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. UCLA - The line on this game had been +4.5 to +7 Pittsburgh although the number opened as low as +3.5.  There was such a wide line range that we decided to include this under the 3.5/3 trend.  More importantly we found that three of four where the line moved between the 3.5 and 7 went for the dog.  Three of those line were trending downward, it should be noted.  FAU -3 to -5.5 Ohio was the only game we analyzed where the line moved up within this range and the dog, Ohio, won outright.  We'd note that the line was accurate to a 2.5 overlay in that particular game. For this year's Sun Bowl game we got a number of UCLA 2.59, so this one did feature an overlay of between 2 and 4.5 points.  So Pitt was our play and did win outright by two points as the dog.

6.5/7 (Underlays)

Losers

Hawaii Bowl - Middle Tennessee vs. SDSU - This one features a line of SDSU -6.5. We had a number of 9.91, indicating a 3.5 underlay. With the line 6.5/7 and not going above 7 we have had the favorite go 6-0 with underlays this season.  A small sampling perhaps but San Diego State was among our favorite plays and they bombed. 

5.5/6/6.5 (Overlays)

Winners

Orange Bowl - Tennessee vs. Clemson - Clemson was coming in at +6.5 with the line dipping to +5.5.  And we honed in on four comparables that tended to favor the dog 3 to 1. 

Arizona  +5 +6 +6.5 (Sat AM Only) SDSU  (dog wins and covers by double digits).

UAB -5.5 / -6 / -6.5 Liberty (Dog Liberty covers and wins outright) Liberty 0.66 Wrong Team Favored and Overlay of 6 to 7.

Northern Illinois +5.5 - +6.5 Tulsa (Dog Northern Illinois covers in a 3-point loss) 8.42 Underlay of 2 to 3.

Miami +5.5 to +6.5 Texas A&M (Favorite covers with 8 point win) Texas A&M 6.03 On the Money.

Our number was Vols 5.3.  Not only was the wrong team favored but there was a massive 11 or greater overlay.  All the departures in the world will have had a tough time accounting for this gigantic discrepancy.

Tennessee winning did not surprise us one bit.  This was among our favorite plays of the bowl season.

10.5/10 (Underlays)

Winners

First Responders Bowl - Memphis vs. Utah State - The line mostly stayed at Tigers -7.5.  We got a number of 10.59, suggesting an underlay of 3 points.  Though a small sampling, underlays in the 10/10.5 range had gone 5-1 for the favorite.  A dangerous play indeed with the big number but Memphis came through for us (38-10).

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Marshall vs. UConn - The line on this game was Marshall -10/-10.5, alternating over the course of the week leading up to this game.  We got a number of Thundering Herd 12.95, indicating an underlay of 2.5 to 3 points. Underlays went 5-1 for favorites in the 10/10.5 range this season.  Marshall did win by 14 points.

9.5/10/10.5 (Overlays)

Losers

Las Vegas Bowl - Florida vs. Oregon State  - Oregon State came into this game as a -8.5 favorite after opening as high as -10.5.  We got a number of 4.57.  This suggested a 4 to 6 point overlay.  The dogs have mostly covered with overlays in this line range, according to Gambling911.com analyses.  And that had us all over Florida at +10.5.  The Beavers had covered in their last six, and we thought they might be due for a failed cover in this one.  That didn't happen as they destroyed the Gators.

9.5/10/10.5 (On the Money)

Losers

Pinstripe Bowl - Syracuse vs. Minnesota - The line on this game moved from Golden Gophers -9.5 to -10.5 although a number of books still had this one at -9.5 as of early Wednesday afternoon just prior to game time.  We get a number of Minnesota 9.4, which places this one right on the money.  Though a relatively small sampling, the favorites had gone 6-1 with accurate lines around the 10 spot.  This was a painful loss for us as Minnesota still won but failed to cover with the eight-point victory.

Overlays Greater Than 5

Winners

Bahamas Bowl - Miami OH vs. UAB - With the Gambling911.com number coming in at 5.03, we did have an overlay of 4.5 to 6 points.  The line has moved from -9.5 to -11.  Overlays greater than 5 points have generally favored the dog this season 15-2.  That's exactly what happened here as UAB not only covered but won by 4 points.

New Orleans Bowl - WKU vs. South Alabama - The line on this game was South Alabama -7.5 and had dropped to -4.5.  We got a number of Jaguars 0.61.  That suggested a 4-point overlay that had been as much as a 7-point overlay earlier in the week. Overlays greater than 5 points have gone 15-2 in favor of the underdog as of December 5, 2022.  This was a dangerous play in that we typically wouldn't be on this one with lines under the 4.5, but we still pulled the trigger based on the average amount of time the line spent in +5 overlay territory. 

Orange Bowl - Tennessee vs. Clemson - (See Above 5.5/6/6.5)

Texas Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss - (See Above 3.5/6/3)

Losers

LA Bowl - Washington State vs. Fresno State -  The Fresno State Bulldogs come in as a -4 favorite versus the Washington State Cougars in this 2022 LA Bowl game.  They opened at -3.  With a number of Washington State 3.6, the wrong team was favored and we had an overlay of 7.5.  Overlays of 5 or greater this season had gone overwhelmingly in favor of the dog this season (15-2).  And get this, overlays where the line is 3/3.5 went 20-5 for the underdog.  So what could possibly go wrong?  Fresno State defied this trend and won big against our pick Washington State.   The reality is that Washington State would have been one of our top bowl game picks so this was among the worst of our losses.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com