Today's Hot MLB Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates as They Take on Nats Priced at Just -137

Top cappers Calvin King and Robert Jones are loving the Pittsburgh Pirates at -136 this day.  Aren't we all these days?

They're facing off against the dreadful Washington Nationals but are in a pretty good spot here as the -136 favorites.

King is looking for his sixth straight win.  Roberts suffered a loss with his last pick on the Angels last night but is 3-1 with his last four picks and is up over $800 this past week.

We love consensus plays but any time we see a 20-8 team versus a 9-17 team with a line under -140, this scares us just a little. 

Let's take a look at whether Gambling911.com agrees with this particular play.

Pirates vs. Nationals

Pittsburgh has not been a very good team in recent years but the Pirates are for real so far in 2023.  Their poor showing has contributed to the current trend of 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in Washington.  Just be mindful that trend is starting to evaporate as the Pirates have won the last two nights here and look to sweep on Sunday.

Some other hot betting trends for this MLB team to consider include:

• Pirates are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Pirates are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Couple these with the Nats cold trends that include:

• Nationals are 14-40 in their last 54 home games.
• Nationals are 10-25 in their last 35 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Nationals are 4-10 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game (they went 1-16 on Saturday).

Now let's look at the starting pitching.

Johan Oviedo is 2-1 with a respectable 3.03 ERA so far this season for Pittsburgh.  Washington Nationals career statistics vs. Johan Oviedo include just nine at bats, thus we have very limited information here.  He's allowed two hits but nothing beyond that.

What we do like is that he is coming off a no-decision his last start.  Oviedo was charged with five runs (four earned) over 5 1/3 innings on Tuesday against the Dodgers.  Prior to this, he gave up a single run over six innings while striking out six on Tuesday in a win over the Rockies.  That was coming off one of his best career performances against the Cardinals in which he struck out a career-high 10 batters only to lose.

The price on Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray is a little low for our tastes being that he's 1-4 so far.  Granted his ERA is slightly better than the opposition at 2.93.

Pittsburgh Pirates career statistics vs. Josiah Gray are also limited to just nine at bats with one hit (.125).

Gray is coming off a big win against the Mets his last start.  That's his first win of the season.  We tend to like betting against an average starter on a bad team coming off a win versus a good team.

While this one looks a bit like a sucker price, we think these two cappers are onto something.  The Pittsburgh Pirates at -136 looks to be a good play. 

This game starts at 1:35 pm ET. Do note that this game has the potential to be delayed in the later innings due to the likelihood of rains moving in around the 4 pm hour.

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com Senior Game Analyst