Should I Bet on the Boston Red Sox James Paxton?

Should bettors back James Paxton of the Boston Red Sox in today's game?  Let's take a thorough look below.

Paxton will come into this game with a bit of an advantage.  The Red Sox are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings vs. the Cleveland Guardians.  And don't worry about this game being played in Cleveland. The Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings there.

Boston you can still get at -106.

Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is seeking his first win since May 19.  He had a bad outing in his next game before striking out eight batters over five innings of one-run ball on Wednesday in a no-decision against the Reds.

Guardians career statistics vs. Paxton have just 26 at bats but Paxton has not permitted any homers and is averaging .192.

Cleveland has won six of their last ten but scored no more than four runs in six over that span.  Boston, we should not, has also scored no more than four runs in six of their last ten games overall.

What's to Love

• Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 games played in Cleveland
• James Paxton allowed just one run his last start following a poor performance and is seeking his first win since May 19
• Jarren Duran has given Shane Bieber fits while Shane Bieber has hit two of the three homers off of Bieber

What's Not to Love

• On paper at least, Bieber would appear to be the better pitcher here based on his wins and ERA compared to Paxton
• Bieber is more than capable of pitching deep and is coming off a poor showing

Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA) gave up seven runs over four innings on Wednesday in a no-decision the Orioles.  Prior to that, Bieber held the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings for the win in a 4-3 game.

Bieber is more than capable of pitching beyond the 6th inning.

Jarren Duran (.276) has been a thorn in Bieber's side.  He's 4 for 6 but with no home runs or RBIs to show for it.

Rafael Devers (.246 with 13 home runs this season) has two of the three home runs against Bieber.

Boston batters are 13 of 51 at bats against him (.255).  Not horrible for Bieber, but not great either.

The total here has come off the 8.5 to 7.5.

The Under is tempting but we'll take Boston -106 with that 7-1 edge coming in hard to ignore behind Paxton.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com