Free MLB Picks - August 28, 2023

Written by:

Tony Caliente

Published on:

Aug/27/2023

We were so tempted to pick the UNDER on the Royals-Mariners Sunday game at 8 as everything suggested this one should be an OVER except that the total was not moving with all the action on the OVER. Instead we decided to sit the day out. Be sure to place all your bets at BetUS here.

Angels @ Phillies

This one features a tempting line on Philadelphia at just -142 having won seven of their last ten versus and Angels team that continues to struggle.

Taijuan Walker held the Giants to two runs across five innings last Tuesday but failed to capture the win. He lost his previous start giving up two homers and three runs in five innings against the Twins.

He's faced the current Angels lineup 40 times and only allowed just 7 hits (.175).

Lucas Giolito is 7-10 with a 4.32 ERA for the Angels.

He's faced the current Phillies roster a total of 70 times allowing 7 hits, three of which were homers (.240).

The total was coming in at 9 with five of the last ten staying UNDER that number.

The Angels have scored four or fewer runs in 7 of their last ten games overall while allowing four or more in half of their last ten.

Philadelphia has scored six or more runs in seven of their last ten games while allowing four or fewer in eight of their last ten.

Yankees @ Tigers

The total on this game is 9 with eight of the last ten in this series staying UNDER that number. The Yankees have won five of the last six in this series.

Luis Severino started to right the ship on Wednesday, throwing 6 2/3 shutout innings in a win over the Nationals.

Reese Olson was hit hard in a no-decision against the Cubs on Tuesday, giving up six runs on four hits over his 4 2/3 frames. He gave up four runs in just 2.5 innings in his prior start but pitched two-hit ball for six innings over the Twins in the game before that one.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs in half of their last ten games while allowing three or fewer in half as well.

Detroit has scored four or more in eight of their last ten while allowing three or fewer runs by opponents over that span.

Better than 80 percent of the total action was on the OVER with the line coming down a half to 8.5.

Take the UNDER 8.5

Astros @ Red Sox

This total has gone from 10 to 9.5 (Americas Bookie) and the line from Boston -119 to -148 overnight. Most of the US regulated books were sitting on the 10 as of Monday afternoon.

The total in this series has not hit above 9 in the last nine meetings. Three of the last four have seen runs scored well above the overnight total of 10.5.

Cristian Javier is 9-2 with a 4.52 ERA and he won his last start. He's been victorious in two of the last three.

Last week, he allowed three runs in five innings against the Red Sox. Prior to that Javier surrendered four runs in a no-decision.

When you look at the five hits in 29 at bats versus this current Boston lineup, it's difficult to imagine there being OVER 10.5 runs scored.

Likewise, Chris Sale has allowed only 8 hits in 27 at bats versus the Astros current lineup.

These teams split their series last week.

Padres @ Cardinals

The total here has gone from 9.5 to 10 overnight while San Diego was coming in as low as -170 at some books and -190 at others. By Monday the total had moved from 9.5 down to 9 with around 60 percent of the total action on the UNDER. The line had moved from -170 to -207.

Blake Snell (10-9, 2.73 ERA) looks like the better pitcher here, at least on paper. He surrendered three runs over six innings on Tuesday in a loss to the Marlins but is coming off two consecutive wins against the Orioles and Diamondbacks. He has not permitted more than 3 runs over his last few starts.

Five of the last seven games he has started in have stayed UNDER the overnight total of 10.

Snell has a small number of appearances (27) versus these Cards. He's only allowed 3 hits (.111).

Adam Wainwright (3-9, 8.61 ERA) does not have a win in his last nine appearances. He's lost his last five and eight of those last nine.

Wainwright surrendered six runs across 4 2/3 innings Tuesday in a loss to the Pirates and yielded three runs in six innings versus the Mets in his prior start.

On August 11 Wainwright lasted just one-plus innings and gave up eight runs to the Royals.

Versus the Padres he has permitted 28 hits in 108 at bats.

Brewers @ Cubs

The line ranged anywhere from -119 to -130 favoring the Cubs as of Monday.

Milwaukee has won their last eight games. The Cubs have won seven of their last ten. These two teams have mostly split wins and losses in their last ten meetings.

Interesting situation here in that Wade Miley does not have a win in his last four starts. He's 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA.

Miley pitched five innings and allowed three runs Tuesday in a no-decision against the Twins. Prior to that he allowed four runs, but just one in the prior start.

Chicago Cubs career statistics vs. Miley are 20 for 71 at bats (.282) but with only one home run.

The total here is 9. The last three meetings with a total of 9 or 9.5 have gone well OVER that number.

Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.60 ERA) does not have a win in his last three starts. He has surrendered four runs in his last two starts and eight against the Blue Jays on August 13.

He's faced these Brewers 80 times, giving up 21 hits (.263) but only two home runs.

The total had moved from 8.5 to 9 Monday with better than 60 percent of the action on the OVER.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

The total for this game has sat at 8.5 and the Dodgers were a steady -145 favorite.

Arizona's Zac Gallen (14-5, 3.11 ERA) has posted wins in his last three starts. Against the Rangers, he piled up 11 strikeouts across six innings of one-run baseball. He limited the Padres to just one run in his previous start.

If history has any say in the matter, Gallen should have another spectacular night Monday. He's allowed just 22 hits off of 110 at bats versus the current Dodgers lineup (.200). He's only surrendered two home runs over that period.

Bobby Miller is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA for LA. Miller surrendered four runs in 6 1/3 innings Tuesday in a loss to the Guardians. He allowed one to two runs his prior three starts.

Both these starters are capable of working through the 6th inning. Arizona now sports the 3rd best bullpen over the last two weeks while the Dodgers have been decent enough.

Four of the last ten in this series have stayed UNDER the 8.5 number. Miller started in the last one to stay UNDER 8.5 on August 9 (a 2-0 win on the road).

Arizona has been scoring of late while permitting opponents no more than 3 runs in six of the last ten starts.

The Dodgers have scored 5 or more in their last five, all against AL teams. They had previously scored no more than three over the other five games leading up to that hot streak. They've also allowed three or fewer runs in half of their last ten games.

Nationals @ Blue Jays

The total on this game was trending 8.5 to 8 with 70% of the totals bets on the UNDER. We've seen the number go to 7.5 with some books obviously trying to balance out the total action and get gamblers to back the OVER.

Josiah Gray (7-10, 3.85) starts for the Nationals. He comes into this game with his back up against the wall not having a win over his last five starts.

Washington has been playing well of late, winning seven of their last ten games overall compared to Toronto winning just four of ten.

Kevin Gausman is 9-8 with a 3.23 ERA. He's due for a win after suffering through two consecutive losses. Gausman only permitted two runs in six innings while striking out eight in a tough luck loss to the Orioles his last start.

Washington has scored 3 or fewer runs in half of their last ten and Toronto has allowed three or fewer runs in half of their last ten games.

Take the UNDER 8 here