Free MLB Picks - August 30, 2023

Written by:

Mary Montgomery

Published on:

Aug/29/2023

What a day Tuesday as we managed to go 3-0, and not with high priced favorites either. Check out all the top handicappers picks at the G911 Sports Hub here.

Astros @ Red Sox

The total on this game appeared to be moving from 10 to 10.5 overnight. The last two games in Boston this week featured totals of 10 to 10.5. One stayed UNDER, the other went OVER.

Houston has won five of the last seven games in the series.

Framber Valdez (9-9, 3.40 ERA) starts for Houston. He's mostly pitched 7 and beyond innings of late and is without a win in his last four starts, two of those losses. In his last start he surrendered ZERO runs but did not factor into the decision. He was torched for six runs before that, had a quality start his prior game and allowed six runs again in the game before that. Noticing a trend?

Adam Duvall has two home runs in just three appearances against Valdez.

Kutter Crawford is 3-3 with a 3.65 ERA for Boston. He was charged with two runs in five-plus innings Friday in a no-decision versus the Dodgers but enjoyed a win in his prior start.

Angels @ Phillies

The total here was 9.5, though we did see an 8.5 overnight. Philadelphia opened at -150 with the line moving to -168 overnight.

Philadelphia has won all five games in this series dating back to 2022 by two or more runs.

Angels starter Reid Detmers (3-10, 5.03 ERA) allowed four runs over five innings on Wednesday in a loss against the Reds but did have a win his prior start.

Cristopher Sanchez is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA starting for the Phillies. That team has been victorious in all four of Sanchez's August starts.

The Angels lineup does have the second worst wOBA versus left-handers over the last month. They've struck out at a generous 25.9% clip over this span.

The OVER is seeing 75% of the action but the line trend has been 9.5 to 9, and even 8.5 at some books.

Take the UNDER 9 here.

White Sox @ Orioles

This one has "sucker" written all over it with Baltimore just a -148 favorite overnight at some books. The official opening line was closer to -168 but that's still a "sucker" bet in our eyes.

Dylan Cease hasn't had a win in his last three starts for Chicago. He gave up 9 and 5 runs his last two starts, respectively.

Cease has been solid against the current Orioles batters, allowing just 19 hits on 84 at bats with just two homers.

Kyle Gibson has four wins in his last five starts, including his last two. He surrendered three runs across eight innings and secured his 13th win Thursday against the Blue Jays.

The White Sox career statistics vs. Gibson are 31 for 118 with only two home runs.

The White Sox have the second lowest wOBA and an above average strikeout rate coming into Camden Yards Wednesday afternoon.

The total on this game was 9 overnight.

The series has hit 9 or more runs in the last five but the prior five each stayed UNDER that number.

Baltimore is 7-3 in the series.

Guardians @ Twins

Seven of the last ten games in this series have seen seven or fewer runs and the total here opened at 8.

Tanner Bibee will be starting for Cleveland as a dog despite being 10-3 with a 3.01 ERA.

Bibee pitched six innings and held the Blue Jays to two runs in a win Friday. He's had three wins over his last four starts. In his lone losing effort he gave up just three runs in five innings of work.

Sonny Gray is 7-6 with a 3.06 ERA for Minnesota. He has three wins and two losses in his last five starts. Gray hurled seven innings of one-run baseball against the Rangers on Friday night.

He's allowed 40 hits off of 143 at bats versus these Indians (.280) but with just two homers. And those came courtesy of Will Brennan, who only has five home runs this season, and Andres Gimenez (5 of 14, .357 against him).

Padres @ Cardinals

The total opened at 9 and moved to 9.5.

Each of these two teams has won just three of their last ten games.

St. Louis has scored more than 3 runs only three times in their last ten games while allowing five or more runs in six of their last ten,

San Diego has scored at least four runs in seven of their last ten while surrendering 5 or more in six of the last ten.

The Cardinals career statistics vs. Rich Hill are 24 of 75 with five home runs (.320), Paul Goldschmidt has three of those homers and is 12 for 26 against Hill.

Miles Mikolas has permitted 14 hits on 61 at bats versus the Padres current lineup (.230). He hasn't had a win in his last seven tries.

Mariners @ Athletics

Bryce Miller has been way hot for Seattle and will face Oakland today. The Mariners are priced at -265, as one might expect being that they are at home against one of the worst teams in the MLB.

The Oakland Athletics and the league's worst wOBA facing right-handers. The Athletics also fan at a 25.1% pace, the third most in MLB with a righty on the hill.

The total on this one sits at 8.5.