2008 Week 1 NFL Predictions
In looking at the line movements vs. the amount of action coming in on various teams we can provide Gambling911.com readers with some of our own 2008 Week 1 NFL predictions.
Take these for what they are worth. Most gamblers do not have a sense for what the actual bookies are looking at, the amount of action coming in on particular games/teams and the stands that sports books are taking.
By having this knowledge, you can gain a significant edge and get into the minds of the bookie - how they see a particular game. Not that they are always right. They're not! But the successful bookmaking firm like an SBG Global, which has been in business for over 10 years now, always has the edge over the gambling public in the long run. Otherwise they'd be out of business.
We told you yesterday how bookies were scrambling to move the line up on Texas Tech in an effort to get more action on Nevada. It was obvious with their reaction they did not have a strong opinion that Nevada could cover the spread, which was -9 to -10 ½. This was the most bet on game during Week 2 of the College Football season - something that most gamblers probably didn't even know. In the end, the odds makers reactions were right on the money and Texas Tech did win by 16 points. There was no way the bookmakers could have won with this game.
Likewise, we told you how the bookies desperately wanted Duke to win with 83 percent of the betting public on Northwestern and the odds makers moving the line only a half point to -6 ½. The final score was 24-20 Northwestern - an outright win for that team but the bookies made out big with Duke since Northwestern failed to cover.
Heading into Sunday we see some good one's.
The fact that the New York Jets line has sat at -3 nearly all week and everyone and their grandmother is betting the Jets should speak volumes as to where the bookmakers think this game will land. Yes, they believe the Dolphins will at least manage to cover here. Think Bill Parcells before Brett Favre maybe. Three of the last four games in this series were won by the Jets but by only a field goal. At the very least, Miami should probably be part of a teaser bet.
Those Atlanta Falcons are another team Gambling911.com is analyzing closely with more than 95 percent of betting action going Detroit's way. The Lions and Bengals were vying for the second big bet of the day on Sunday so the idea that odds makers were keeping this line on Detroit -3 should tell us their frame of mind. Bookies want Atlanta to cover or win outright. Even the Detroit money line had about 70 percent of the action.
And speaking of Cincinnati - Another team with heavy action. Be careful here though. We believe the books will have a tough time winning this game as they are following the action, indicating at least their lack of confidence in Baltimore.
Sports Interaction was desperately trying to get action on the Ravens with a +2 ½ line, the highest we have seen.
The New Orleans Saints ranked among the top 5 bets of the early games. No move at all off the Saints -3 and 86 percent of the action. We know right off the bat the bookies have a super strong opinion on Tampa Bay covering here.
Jacksonville is getting action with a line of -3 on the road and they are hovering right around 70 to 75 percent of action with virtually zero line movement. The bookies have a small opinion on the Tennessee Titans (emphasis on the word "small"). Gambling911.com is giving this one a 60 percent shot of going the Titans way based on what we are observing. A Jacksonville win won't hurt the books that bad though.
Buffalo is the 7th most bet on team. The Bills are -1 across the board and the action is relatively even.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are anywhere from the 6th to 8th most bet on team. Yes they are getting heavy action over 75 percent at some books with little in the way of any line movement. For the most part, the line opened Steelers -6 ½ and has stayed there with about 25 percent of the books moving the line onto the -7 against Houston. It would not surprise us in the least to see Houston cover within 6. Based on the amount of action heading into this game, we are giving that event a 60 percent chance of occurring. The bookies would be on the winning end with a Houston Texans cover or outright victory.
Check back with Gambling911.com for our look at what will likely be the second most bet on team of the day after the New York Jets - The Dallas Cowboys. They were one of the top three bets early in the day but this game goes off at 4:15 pm EST so we will review separately.
Remember, Gambling911.com is your number one source for analyzing betting odds and movements on pivotal NFL and College Football games. We are the most read website among online sports book operators worldwide.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
