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Bet Player Props for Real Money
Here were some sample player prop bets for the 2023 Week 1 LSU game against Florida State.
Jayden Daniels Over/Under total passing yards: 232.5
Noah Cain to score the first touchdown: Pays $65 for every $10 bet, $650 for every $100 bet
Noah Cain 3+ touchdowns: Pays $1900 for every $100 bet
Jayden Daniels passing: 263+ pays $13.50 for every $10 bet or $135 for every $100 bet
Jayden Daniels rushing: 75+ pays $18.40 for every $10 bet or $184 for every $100 bet
Malik Nabers receiving: Pays $15.60 for every $10 bet for 88+
LSU @ Mississippi State
"We played the right way for four quarters," Tigers head coach Brian Kelly said of the lopsided win over Grambling the week before. "Now we need to take that against an SEC opponent. That's the next challenge."
On paper at least, this should be another Tigers victory as they come into this game as the -9.5 favorite. That number hadn't changed throughout the first half of the week leading up to this game.
LSU is still rated at No. 16 on Sagarin (83.86) while Miss State comes in at No. 38 (77.06) with its 2-0 record. We get a number of -4.56, indicating a significant 5-point overlay. When we see this, it's important to check on injuries. The Bulldogs secondary is a bit depleted with safety Ja'Kobi Albert out for the season but he's not worth a 5-point difference and his injury was preseason so that's already factored in.
Overlays in this spread range though have tended to be good to the favorites despite overlays greater than five points in general tending to be more beneficiary for the dog.
Comparables last year included:
The two closest comparables witnessed the underdogs covering.
FLA +10 to +9.5 FSU. The road dog FSU didn't just cover, they won by 7 points. Here we had an overlay of 3 to 3.5.
LSU -9.5 to -10 Texas A&M. The Aggies also covered and won and there was an overlay of 3 to 3.5.
The next two games were pushes for many with the total falling on the number 10.
Syracuse +10 / +9.5 Wake. The home favorite Wake covered and pushed with 10 point win and we had an overlay of close to 2 points.
Texas Tech -10 / -9.5 vs. Oklahoma State whereby the favorite, Oklahoma State, managed to cover with a 10 point win (push for those who had them at -10). There was an overlay of 1 with the 9.5.
Texas -9.5 vs. KU also saw the favorite win, however, we had an underlay on that line of 3.5.
Using the current spread, the Bulldogs are 6-3 Against The Spread vs. LSU in the last nine meetings.
Mississippi State +10 (available as of Wednesday at DraftKings) looks like the more likely outcome.
LSU vs. Grambling Week 2
Jayden Daniels threw for 5 TDs and 269 yards as No. 14 LSU routed Grambling 72-10 following an embarrassing Week 1 loss to FSU.
LSU @ FSU Week 1
The line opened Tigers -2.5 and has only moved down a half point at a handful of sportsbooks. It will be played in Orlando, giving the Noles what is pretty much home field advantage.
We get a line of LSU 3.68, suggesting an underlay of 1. Last year's Gambling911.com college football betting model suggests a strong edge for LSU at this number.
This is the only game matching ranked opponents: No. 5 LSU, No. 8 Florida State.
The Seminoles won a wild Week 1 game last year in New Orleans against the Tigers. Neither was ranked at the time.
This will be the biggest matchup of Week 1 in college football but it's a 7:30 pm Sunday game - LSU vs Florida State | College Football Week 1 Predictions @BetUS_Official https://t.co/2PKyrEH8BM via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) September 2, 2023
LSU vs. Florida State Game Props
LSU @ Florida State
1st Quarter Margin of Victory
17564 LSU by 7 Pts or More +155
17567 Florida State by 7 Pts or More +300
17565 Tie +300
17563 LSU by 1 to 6 Pts +600
17566 Florida State by 1 to 6 Pts +750
LSU @ Florida State
First Score of Game
17550 LSU Touchdown +130
17553 Florida State Touchdown +150
17554 Florida State Field Goal +600
17551 LSU Field Goal +625
17555 Florida State Safety +5000
17552 LSU Safety +5000
LSU @ Florida State
Margin of Victory
17542 Florida State by 1 to 6 Pts +375
17534 LSU by 1 to 6 Pts +400
17543 Florida State by 7 to 12 Pts +550
17535 LSU by 7 to 12 Pts +550
17536 LSU by 13 to 18 Pts +750
17544 Florida State by 13 to 18 Pts +800
17537 LSU by 19 to 24 Pts +1200
17545 Florida State by 19 to 24 Pts +1400
17538 LSU by 25 to 30 Pts +1800
17546 Florida State by 25 to 30 Pts +2000
17539 LSU by 31 to 36 Pts +2500
17547 Florida State by 31 to 36 Pts +3000
17540 LSU by 37 to 42 Pts +4000
17548 Florida State by 37 to 42 Pts +4500
17541 LSU by 43 Pts or More +4500
17549 Florida State by 43 Pts or More +5000
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
