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The Vikings were coming in as a +3.5 dog. This line had come down off the +5.5 with KC favored and also seeing much of the action. In other words, the line appears to be moving in the wrong direction based on the 70% or greater action flowing in on the Chiefs.
The line had come as far down as -3 with 79% of the action on the Chiefs at AcePerHead.
Circa, Bookmaker, BetOnline all dropped from -5.5 to -3.5 by Thursday. Recreational book Bovada did the same. This despite more lopsided action on the Chiefs.
KC is 3-1 Straight Up and 2-2 Against The Spread coming into this one. Minnesota is just 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS.
Two of the Vikings losses were within four points.
The Vikings finally got the job done against Carolina last week.
Harrison Smith had 14 tackles and three of the five sacks of Bryce Young that resulted in 55 lost yards, including a forced fumble that D.J. Wonnum returned 51 yards late in the third quarter to give the Vikings (1-3) their first lead.
It remains to be seen whether last week was a turning point for Minnesota. We do know that one of their players has seen his game improve dramatically over the past two weeks following a slow start. RB Alexander Mattison has topped 90 rushing yards in each of the past two weeks, carrying the ball 20 times against the Chargers and 17 times against the Panthers. The Chiefs have yet to allow more than 118 yards rushing in a game this season.
Sagarin scares us in that they bring us a line of KC -8.5, which means we have a 3 to 5 point underlay here. When the number has stayed above the 3, hitting the 3.5, the favorite has enjoyed much success.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
