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We are monitoring Thursday night's Bucs-Bills game closely as the line has moved from Buffalo -7.5 to -10. We have not really seen any books dropping the line on Thursday as Buffalo continues to see as much as 88% of the spread action. This has all the making of a blowout.
Full Line Monitoring and Action
The Bills were coming in at -9 with 93% of the action as of Wednesday. On Monday BetOnline had the number at -7.5 and had moved it to -8.5 then -9 by Wednesday evening. Bookmaker was keeping the number around -8. Circa had the number at -9 and moved it to -8.5. Bovada has moved the number up the highest, all the way to -9.5 just after 6 pm ET Wednesday. They had Buffalo at -7.5 on Monday. Sagarin has a number of 12.09. This one was Bills $225K to Bucs $20K overnight, so if you're a sportsbook you'll want to move this line up as much as you can. In this case that ceiling for now is 10 (Circa, Pinnacle). Americas Bookie, AcePerHead still had this one at 9 overnight. We were giving Buffalo a 55% chance as of 11:30 pm ET Wednesday night.
How Have the Bills Responded After a Loss?
It depends. Following their Week 1 shock loss to the Jets, Buffalo went on to beat Las Vegas 38-10 then won against Washington 37-3. Against Miami the following week, the Bills won 48-20.
But hosting the Giants, Buffalo won by just five points the week prior to last.
The Miami and Las Vegas blowouts were at home. Buffalo's only "home" loss was actually in London to Jacksonville. It's possible that unimpressive win at home against the Giants was a result of an overseas travel hangover. Who really knows.
Margin of Victory Props
Buccaneers to win by 1-6 pts +600
Buccaneers to win by 7-12 pts +1400
Buccaneers to win by 13-18 pts +3000
Buccaneers to win by 19-24 pts +5500
Buccaneers to win by 31-36 pts +11000
Buccaneers to win by 37-42 pts +12500
Buccaneers to win by 43 or More pts +14000
Bills to win by 1-6 pts +320
Bills to win by 7-12 pts +330
Bills to win by 13-18 pts +375
Bills to win by 19-24 pts +600
Bills to win by 25-30 pts +1100
Bills to win by 31-36 pts +2000
Bills to win by 37-42 pts +4000
Bills to win by 43 or More pts +6000
Tie +5000
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
