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Mississippi State is not getting any love from the public or the oddsmakers as they come in as the +5 home dog and 70% of the action is on Kentucky.
Let's Look at the Line
This one has come up from -3.5 across the board and we were even seeing a few 5.5's. Mississippi State should be favored here as we are getting a number of Bulldogs 0.37 courtesy of Sagarin. So not only is the wrong team favored, we also have an overlay of 5.5. In this range, that's major for the dog according to our model. With a significant enough sampling, dogs are hitting at an 81% clip under this scenario.
There is an important caveat that does not completely showing in the Sagarin ratings though. Mississippi State will be without two key players.
The Bulldogs’ starting quarterback, Will Rogers, will be missing his third straight game, and star running back Woody Marks will be missing his second straight game. Much of this is already calculated in Sagarin by now.
Mike Wright will get the start under center for Mississippi State, and he has led the Bulldogs to a 1-1 record in his previous two starts.
Mississippi State will come into this one 2-6 Against The Spread despite being 4-4 Straight Up.
Prop Bets for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State
3 Straight Scores by Either Team
yes
-209
no
+153
Team to Score First
MSST
+105
KEN
-141
First score of Game is Touchdown
yes
-295
no
+195
Any Team to Score 40+ Points
yes
+526
no
-1000
Will there be Overtime
yes
+800
no
-2000
Will there be a Scoreless Quarter
yes
+158
no
-218
Time of First Score O/U 6 (mins elapsed)
Under(6)
-114
Over(6)
-117
Defensive or special teams TD scored
yes
+233
no
-334
Team to Score Last
MSST
-103
KEN
-130
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
