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A feature you'll only find on Gambling911.com, the AcePerHead internal action report has Minnesota seeing lopsided action against the Chicago Bears Monday night.
Following the Baltimore Ravens cover against the LA Chargers Sunday night, the books really need Chicago here. That's a tough pill to swallow for sure.
AcePerHead has the Vikings seeing around 75 percent of the spread action as of Monday morning. Industry wide numbers suggest the Vikings are seeing closer to 68% but this is still a lopsided affair. And guess what? The oddsmakers have moved this one off the -3.5 to -3. Makes you wonder.
We do get a number of Minnesota 7.87 that does not necessarily fully take into account the injury to Kirk Cousins. The calculations do not take into account arguably the Vikings best player, wideout Justin Jefferson, sitting this one out with a hamstring injury either. He's not officially out but reportedly will be on the sidelines for this one. We do believe the number is closer to Minnesota -6 once adjustments are made.
Whether or not Justin Jefferson plays will not have an impact on this game, as the Vikings will be able to take care of business with or without their star receiver, suggests Winners and Whiners.
"Even with all the turnover at important positions, the Vikings are still 4th in the NFL in passing offense at 266.7 yards per game. This will be a big problem for the Bears as they rank 26th in passing defense."
The Vikings have also owned this series over the last five meetings. And they've beaten the Bears by more than the current spread in each of them.
Our own system does not indicate an advantage for either side when there is this big an underlay in the 3/3.5 range.
This is one where we might have to just throw it all away and put our trust in the sportsbooks. There's an opinion here with the line moving from -3.5 to -3.
Also, since when does a 3-8 team come in as a +3 road dog against an opponent with a winning record?
Chicago was a +3 dog at home earlier in the season when we didn't quite know how bad this team would be.
Do take the Bears in this one.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
