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Just Steel had some value at 25-1 odds of winning this year's Kentucky Derby. That would be a $2500 payout on a $100 bet.
Just Steel was sired by Justify out of the Fastnet Rock mare Irish Lights.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Just Steel Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Trainer (7)
We know. Wayne Lukas last trained a Kentucky Derby-winning horse more than two decades ago. He's still a top trainer. Through 2023, Lukas has won 4,913 races (No. 9 all time) with purse earnings of $292,948,606 (No. 5 all time).
Post Position (6)
Has the least number of wins of the first 10 posts with two but there is a bit of a silver lining in that the position has yielded eight second-place finishes, tied with Post 5 for the most. Good Magic finished second in 2018 from the sixth post.
Jockey (5)
Keith Asmussen is the 25-year-old son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen who enters the Kentucky Derby following a second place finish at the all important Arkansas Derby.
More Reason to Bet on Just Steel (6)
Just Steel has reached triple-digits with his speed figure, including his 100 figure in the Arkansas Derby.
Mudder (8)
He finished 2nd in the Southwest Stakes on a muddy track.
Why Just Steel Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Past Performances (4)
Sure he finished 2nd at the Arkansas Derby, his most recent race, but he also hasn't had a win in his last four starts.
He finished 7th in the Rebel Stakes before that but had two other 2nd place finishes the races prior so perhaps the Rebel Stakes was an outlier.
Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby
After Post Position Draw
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +1500
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
Early
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +2000
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
