Netanyahu Out By October 31: Betting Market Has Odds of This Happening at +220

The International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity over the October 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the court’s prosecutor Karim Khan told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview on Monday.

BetOnline, while they don't have a specific betting market on Netanyahu's fate just yet, does have him listed at 2-1 odds to be the next world leader to exit, after Rishi Sunak of The United Kingdom (-115).  These odds are being offered in the wake of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi being pronounced dead on Monday following a fatal helicopter crash Sunday.  It wasn't immediately clear if BetOnline had offered odds on Raisi leaving office of if "official" means by choice or being forced out.

The warrants against the Israeli politicians mark the first time the ICC has targeted the top leader of a close ally of the United States.

Polymarket did offer a betting market on Netanyahu's departure specifically. The odds were set at a 31 chance as of Monday afternoon, shortly after the ICC news broke. We should note that Polymarket does not take bets from those in the U.S.

Note on Middle East Markets From Polymarket: "The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

"Note: we are taking 0 fees on this and providing the service at a loss."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any length of time between May 19, 2024, and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Netanyahu has remained Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration without interruption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.