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- Joe Biden is receiving surprising support from the betting public that has him +108 of leading Donald Trump at 538 Project.
- Trump was still the -300 favorite to win the November election with Biden at +350 as of Tuesday morning.
- A Morning Consult poll taken since the assassination attempt of Trump shows the former president just one point ahead of Biden.
Following the attempted assassination of Republican nominee Donald Trump, BetOnline made the former U.S. president a -300 favorite, up from -180. The probability of Trump winning was now 75% at that gambling website.
But a new market asks Who will 538 project as favorite on Friday? The current president, Joe Biden, is being backed at a 48 percent chance. That number converts to just +108 odds.
That market is courtesy of Polymarket.
538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.
A Morning Consult poll, the first to be featured on 538 since the shooting, shows Trump up by just one point over Biden. Trump has been up between 1 and 3 points nationally since the debate and Biden's universally panned performance.
As of Tuesday morning, Trump remained at -300 odds and Biden sat at +350 odds. Vice President Kamala Harris came in at +1000 odds.
Polymarket does not take bets from those in the U.S., unlike BetOnline. Polymarket's 538 Project market will resolve as follows:
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19.
Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.
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