New Betting Markets Released July 22
A number of gambling markets have opened up Monday, many of which pertain to politics in the wake of Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris the likely Democratic nominee. The president endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president shortly following his announcement.
Fox News Hosts Debate Between Trump & Harris?
In light of Harris likely becoming the Democratic nominee, former president and GOP nominee Donald Trump is now asking for the next Presidential debate between him and Harris to be hosted by Fox News, and not ABC as previously planned. Fox News is viewed as more friendly territory for Trump.
"My debate with Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the history of the United States, was slated to be broadcast on Fake News ABC, the home of George Slopadopolus, sometime in September. Now that Joe has, not surprisingly, has quit the race, I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC. Thank you!," Trump posted to Truth Social late Sunday afternoon.
Why Bet at BetUS
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On average, 42% of those betting this market at Polymarket were backing the change of venue. That is represented as +138 in terms of betting odds.
Polymarket does not accept bets from those in the U.S., unlike our friends at BetUS, which offers similar betting markets.
$24,000 had already been wagered on this option.
This market will resolve to "Yes" at Polymarket if Fox News (Fox News Channel, FNC) announces Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agreed to a debate hosted by them between July 20, and October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that Fox News announces that it will host such a debate. Whether the debate actually occurs will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is official information from Fox News.
Will Joe Biden Make an Appearance By Wednesday?
This market just opened late Monday morning as Biden is yet to be seen since being diagnosed with Covid-19. Biden's announcement that he would be dropping out of the 2024 race came via a letter posted on social media.
Odds on Biden making an appearance prior to Wednesday were at Even or 50%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if US President Joe Biden makes a new public or digital appearance between July 22, 12:00 AM ET, and July 24, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public appearance includes for example Biden descending the steps from Air Force One, or an appearance at a press conference. A digital appearance must be verified as new, authentic footage (not AI-generated). For example, if Biden appears in a new prerecorded speech, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Biden must be awake for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Major Challenger to Harris
In just under 24 hours since Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, there are no indications yet that a challenger will take on Harris for the Democratic nomination. The odds of this happening were +200 or 33% as of early Monday afternoon.
Now Independent West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin was seeing a 1% chance of challenging Harris after indications he might be preparing to run.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any major candidate announces they are challenging Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States between July 22, 2024, and the moment the Democratic nominee is announced. A major candidate is defined as any current or former Senator, Governor, House member (congressman), Cabinet member, or former President/First Lady. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve to "No" if Kamala Harris officially wins the Democratic Nomination before a major challenger has announced.
If Kamala Harris drops out before a candidate has announced a challenge this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Will Biden Speak at the DNC?
The 2024 Democratic National Convention is scheduled for August 19-22, 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is a speaker at the Democratic National Convention. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Biden will be considered a "speaker" if he publicly gives a speech in-person at the convention.
Simply appearing on the main stage of the convention floor will not count for a "Yes" resolution, he must actually give a speech.
Will Elon Musk Speak at Bitcoin Conference?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a speaker at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Elon Musk will be considered a "speaker" if he publicly gives a speech to a Bitcoin Conference crowd on-stage at the conference.
Simply appearing on-stage at the conference will not count for a "Yes" resolution, he must actually give a speech.
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