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Here is our second installment of look behind the counter at the BetAmapola sportsbook. These weekly articles will focus on high volume games, one way action, and which sides the big bettors tend to fall on. You can follow along at @BetAmapola on twitter so you can get a real time look at the action we are taking and where the money is at, along with any other juicy nuggets we can provide.
NFL Thursday:
Two way action on the side and ML. Big and Small bettors were on the under which worked out for some, didn’t work out for others, depending on which number the gambler got. The final play of the game where Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely’s toe was on the line ended up deciding the spread because Harbaugh had already signaled he was going for two. It also decided the total for bettors who had got under 47 or 47.5 early in the week. As they say…..It is a game of inches. This game was a great example of why getting the best of the number is the key to long term success in betting.
NFL Friday:
Even action on the spread but in the same trend we saw last week, players like to lay the -130 ML instead of taking the -2 on the eagles, most likely for peace of mind while watching their bets. This trend seems to trend across recreational gamblers as they are less price sensitive and are willing to lay the ML juice.
CFB Big volume games:
The most bet games of the week from our side of the counter: Michigan Vs Texas in the early slate was a CLASSIC big bettor vs little bettor game. We had 3 to 1 bets on Texas, and the public got there easily as Texas looks like a national title contender while winning big. Michigan seems lost at QB and will have to figure that out situation quickly if they want to bounce back. The other classic little bet vs big bet game was on Iowa vs ISU with a bet count of 2 to 1 to Iowa. The house took the cash in this game as ISU stormed back to win outright on a late FG after trailing throughout most of the game.
One way line movers:
We noticed a trend in week two with one way line moving games. This is when a game steams in one direction and never drifts back to the opener. Some people will refer to it as “playing steam”. The biggest one way line movers of the CFB week were Air Force, FIU, Ole miss, Louisville, and Memphis. All these one way line movers took home the cash easily and it is a trend to be monitored throughout the rest of the season.
Disaster games for the book:
The two worst games of Saturday for us were the Nebraska vs Colorado and the Tennessee vs NC State games. These games were high volume, mostly one way action games. The big bettors and small bettors aligned on both Tennessee and Nebraska, causing us to have a large position on the game. Sadly for the us, neither of the games were competitive and the players took home the cash with ease. Overall, these two games really kept the house from having a big Saturday.
Nuggets and Tidbits:
-NFL really enforcing illegal formation penalties could have an effect on the totals making it harder for the offense to sustain drives, something to keep an eye on.
As we talked about last week, Favorites with a spread of -21 or more performed extremely well in week 1. , This trend tapered off a little, but those heavy favorite teams still went 7-5 against the spread in week 2. We will keep monitoring this as the season goes on.
-As was the case last week, games that steamed in one direction early in the week had an extreme tendency to move back closer to the opening line as the game approached. This could be a factor of early week group think or even perhaps line manipulation while the limits are lower early in the week, allowing the big bettors to come in and grab a better number closer to game time.
- We saw Notre Dame lose outright as 28 point favorites. This is one of the largest upsets in college football over the last few years and also has put a damper on Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. Notre Dame was coming off a big win at Texas A&M and this was a shocking loss at home to a team from the MAC.
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