Only Half of Bettors Believe Latest Trump Incident Suspect is a Registered Democrat

Following yet another possible assassination attempt of former president and GOP candidate Donald Trump, Polymarket opened a handful of "fact check" betting markets tied to the latest suspect.

One asks whether he is a registered Democrat and just half of those placing bets believe that he is. $85,000 in bets were placed as of Monday morning.  We would note that Polymarket does not accept bets from those located in the U.S.

Trump was the target of what the FBI said “appears to be an attempted assassination” at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday, just nine weeks after the Republican presidential nominee survived another attempt on his life. The former president said he was safe and well, and authorities held a man in custody.

U.S. Secret Service agents stationed a few holes up from where Trump was playing noticed the muzzle of an AK-style rifle sticking through the shrubbery that lines the course, roughly 400 yards away.

An agent fired and the gunman dropped the rifle and fled in an SUV, leaving the firearm behind along with two backpacks, a scope used for aiming and a GoPro camera, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said. The man was later stopped by law enforcement in a neighboring county.

The man who was detained had a calm, flat demeanor and showed little emotion when he was stopped, according Martin County Sheriff William Snyder.

“He never asked, ‘What is this about?’ Obviously, law enforcement with long rifles, blue lights, a lot going on. He never questioned it,” Snyder said.

He has since been identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, previously of North Carolina.  Routh moved to Hawaii some time in 2018 and appears to have resided there since that time.

Routh frequently posted on social media about the war in Ukraine and had a website where he sought to raise money and recruit volunteers to go to Kyiv to join the fight against the Russian invasion.

Some media outlets are reporting that Routh claims to have supported Trump in 2016 but became disenchanted with him since that time.  Other reports claim he supported Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, both Republicans who were running for President prior to Trump securing the nomination.  The situation, we would note, is still fluid and reports are constantly changing.   

In an email to supporters, Trump said: “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL!” He wrote: “Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!”

Democratic candidate for president and the current vice president, Kamala Harris, had been a -130 favorite to win this coming November.  That number only changed slightly as of Monday morning, down to -125.  Trump came in with +105 odds.

Over the weekend, prior to this latest incident, BetOnline began offering prop bets on Trump's Next Girlfriend in light of news he spent much of last week travling with right wing provocateur Laura Loomer.

How this betting market will be resolved

On September 15, there was an incident in which a suspect was detained in connection to shots fired at Trump's golf course.

This market will resolve to "Democrat" if the suspect's latest voter registration is Democrat.
This market will resolve to "Republican" if the suspect's latest voter registration is Republican.

If the suspect's latest voter registration is independent, or they are not registered to vote at all, this market will resolve to "50-50".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.