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There is growing fear of an expansive war in the Middle East.
Betting markets on an invasion of Lebanon by Israel were being offered by Polymarket.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? 39% - $670.1k Bet
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? 17% - $109.2k Bet
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? 22% - $20.5k Bet
The leader of Hezbollah vowed Thursday to keep up daily strikes on Israel despite this week’s deadly sabotage of its members’ communication devices that included exploding pagers and walkie-talkies that reportedly injured thousands. As many as two dozen were believed to have been killed by the exploding devices.
An Israeli airstrike hit a neighborhood of Beirut on Friday, killing at least nine people and wounding nearly 60 others, Lebanese health officials said, the deadliest such Israeli attack on Lebanon’s capital since the 2006 war between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group.
How These Betting Markets Will Be Resolved
Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
Note: we are taking 0 fees on this and providing the service at a loss.
Invasion of Lebanon
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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