FTX Exec Caroline Ellison Faces Sentencing and We Got Her Prison Odds

Caroline Ellison, the one-time top executive at Sam Bankman-Fried ’s fallen FTX cryptocurrency empire was sentenced to prison on Tuesday.  The two-year sentence was far more harsh than gamblers had anticipated.

Ellison, 29, pleaded guilty nearly two years ago and testified against Bankman-Fried for nearly three days at a trial last November.

In a court filing, prosecutors said said her testimony was the “cornerstone of the trial” against Bankman-Fried, 32, who was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to 25 years in prison.

“Caroline blames no one but herself for what she did,” her lawyers wrote in a court filing. “She regrets her role deeply and will carry shame and remorse to her grave.”

FTX was one of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency exchanges, known for its Superbowl TV ad and its extensive lobbying campaign in Washington, before it collapsed in 2022.

Polymarket had offered odds on how long she would serve, with just 33% of gamblers believing she would spend any time behind bars.   Nearly $200,000 has been bet thus far.

66% say no prison as part of a bet market that has seen nearly $900,000 wagered. Less than 30% believe she will serve more than two years.

This market was to resolve to "Yes" if Caroline Ellison is not sentenced to spend any time in custody of a jail or prison, as part of "United States of America v. Caroline Ellison", by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market resolved immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "Yes".

Despite what the  judge cited as Ellison's extensive cooperation with prosecutors and her testimony deemed as critical to convicting Sam Bankman-Fried, she still received the two-year sentence.

“I’ve seen a lot of cooperators in 30 years. I’ve never seen one quite like Ms. Ellison,”  Judge Lewis Kaplan said before going on to  describe her as “vulnerable” and “exploited.”