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We will throw this right out there. Gambling911.com likes the Texas Tech Red Raiders to cover the -3 to -3.5 spread against Cincinnati on Saturday.
Our model loves the favorite when there is an underlay and the line is between the 3 to 3.5 without dropping below the 3. Our sampling of 27 games in this scenario over two years has the favorite covering in 82% of games.
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Texas Tech takes a five-game home winning streak into its first Big 12 matchup against the Bearcats. The Red Raiders have a sellout as they play at home for the third week in a row, and opened conference play last week with a 30-22 win over Arizona State. Cincinnati is coming off a 34-0 win over Houston, which was the Bearcats' first shutout of a major conference opponent since 1995.
KEY MATCHUP
Corey Kiner and Cincinnati's rushing game vs. an improving Texas Tech defense. Kiner is seventh in the Big 12 with 101 yards rushing per game, and the Bearcats average 197.5 a game. Arizona State was held by Tech last week to 94 yards rushing, well below its 229 average going into the game. The Red Raiders have allowed 229 yards rushing total in their past two games since Washington State piled up 301 against them.
Arizona vs. Utah
The Arizona vs. Utah line has moved all the way from as high as -13 Utes to -9.
Sagarin gives us a number of 14.89, indicating a significant underlay. Our model, while it likes the favorite in situations where there is an underlay over 10 does not offer an edge when the line has moved from above that number to below that number (the 9).
Micah Bernard has played a pivotal role in helping the No. 10 Utes (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) stay undefeated heading into Saturday’s late-night clash with Arizona. The senior piled up a career-best 182 yards on a career-high 25 carries in the Utes’ 22-19 win over Oklahoma State a week earlier. He’s the first Utah player since Ty Jordan in 2020 to reel off three consecutive 100-yard games.
“They do a great job of opening holes and make sure I can find a little sliver to get through,” Bernard said. “I watched the film, and they did a great job of staying on guys. Opened up small slivers and I’m just finding them.”
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