Most of You Lost Backing the Falcons on the Spread vs. New Orleans in Week 4

It's what makes us pull out that last hair on our head....unless you happened to be on the right side of Sunday's Saints-Falcons game, got on Atlanta earlier in the week or, not bet this one at all.  We're happy to say, Gambling911.com resisted betting on Atlanta later in the week. 

Accurate Line 2.5 to 3 Goes Bust

Our two year old model did like the accurate lines at 2.5/3 going for the favorite in a handful of suspect games. Never-the-less, we weren't entirely convinced.

Case in point: the aforementioned Saints-Falcons game.

Prior to this week, our model liked favorites in this scenario at a 77% clip.  We believe that number will continue to hover around 75%.  Let's be clear, it's a good number with a significant enough sampling of games (37).

We liked Atlanta based on our model only.

There were some injury question marks ahead of this game that may have impacted the line some.

New Orleans received positive injury news on running back Alvin Kamara and receiver Chris Olave before Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Still, the Saints already ruled out three players ahead of this game:  Linebacker Demario Davis (hamstring), guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and receiver A.T. Perry (hamstring).  Yes, the Saints were depleted.

You'd have to go back to Tuesday to have won backing Atlanta on the spread (-1 to -1.5) at most books. Because of this, we're counting New Orleans as the win Against The Spread with Atlanta winning by just two points and coming in at -2.5 to -3 since late Tuesday.

Another dog, the Vikings, came through as a +2 to +3 dog with a line that was on the money.

Favorite Chicago met expectations of our model, covering Against The Spread as a favorite against the Rams with an accurate line in the 2.5 to 3 point range.

When all was said and done, however, our model failed us 1-2 and dropped the percentage does from 77% to 74%.

We Just Weren't Feeling Philadelphia

Underlays with a line of 2.5/3 have been good to the favorites in the NFL over the last two years also.  The problem here is the sampling is not as extensive.

Our percentage came in at 88% prior to this week. 

We're not counting this in the loss column however.

That's because our model criteria for this game required the line to touch 2.5 over a specified period of time after Monday.  In the case of the Eagles-Bucs game, the 2.5 was hit for only a brief period of time during the early morning hours Wednesday.  The primary line came in between 1 and 2, one in which our model provides no edge in this range for underlays.

That's not to say we didn't consider the Eagles.  We did.

Other variables had us shying away. 

Tampa Bay beat the Eagles at home.

This is rare for us in that Gambling911.com did not have any plays for Sunday's NFL games.  We had three for Saturday's college football, two of which pushed (Texas A&M and Texas Tech) and another (Alabama) came through nicely.