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With a line that has moved from -5 to -3, the underlay in the West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State game is quite hefty.
The game is not getting a whole lot of attention with both teams just barely clinging to winning records, well, sort of: The Mountaineers are at 2-2 and Cowboys at 3-2.
Sagarin has Oklahoma State sitting at No. 15 on its ratings. They suggest the line should be Oklahoma State -10.5. Neither team is ranked coming into this weekend.
The Cowboys are hoping to stop a two-game losing skid.
This was a team picked to finish third in the Big 12 preseason poll and was expected to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. But the Cowboys have opened conference play with losses to Utah and Kansas State and are in danger of falling completely out of the league race.
The Cowboys start running back Ollie Gordon has thus far struggled but showed signs of regaining his form last week.
Gordon, the Doak Walker award winner last year for best running back last season, has eclipsed 100 yards in a game only once thus far this season.
West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is not taking him lightly.
“I think you’ve got to play these guys saying, hey, we’ve got to figure out how we stop Ollie Gordon," he said coming into this game. "And I don’t know, stop’s not the right word. We’ve got to figure out a way to contain him. Everything in the game plan then feeds off that.”
Oklahoma State linebacker Collin Oliver will be sidelined for an extended period of time because of a foot injury, but that has been the case since early September. As such, this injury is already factored into Sagarin's rating.
Underlays with the line at 3/3.5/4 have tended to perform quite well for the favorite with our two-year model. 18 of 22 games sampled in this scenario have been covered by the favorite.
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