BetAmapola From Behind The Desk Weekend Preview - October 18, 2024 Edition

In this article, we will talk about all things upcoming this weekend and news that we feel is valuable to the bettor. You can follow along at @BetAmapola on Twitter so you can get a real time look at the action we are taking and where the money is at, along with any other juicy nuggets we can provide. Feel free to send us a DM on twitter or contact the Amapola Resort located in beautiful Jaco Beach, Costa Rica for more information. 

Top CFB Games of the Weekend

Another top five matchup: Georgia at Texas

Seriously, how lucky are we as college football fans? Last week we got the Buckeyes visiting the Ducks in Eugene in what ended up being an absolute barn-burner, and this week we have the Bulldogs heading to Austin. Will this game produce the national champ and/or the Heisman winner? Texas enters the game as more than FG favorites which is crazy to see against a team like UGA.  While we all think Texas' defense is really good, keep in mind the Power 4 offenses they’ve faced this year are Michigan, Mississippi State and Oklahoma. All of them are dreadful when you look at them from an expected points added (EPA) perspective. Of the 68 Power 4 teams, the Wolverines rank 59th, the Sooners are 68th and the Bulldogs are 47th.

Alabama vs Tennessee:

 Speaking of Alabama, something to think about is how their defense this season compares to what we've seen in previous years under Nick Saban. What's changed the most? Is it scheme, players, or coaching? Well for starters, their roster is still loaded. Despite several key players transferring after Saban announced his retirement, Kalen DeBoer was able to retain several of them and bring in more talent through the portal. They are the top ranked team in 247Sports' 2024 "team talent composite" score— a metric that examines and ranks every FBS team, accounting for transfers, dismissals and other early departures, and based on how their players were rated in high school. 

Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown three touchdown passes and three interceptions against Power Conference opponents this season. The Vols will need him to improve quickly, as history isn't on their side either. Since 2007, Tennessee is 2-41 against AP top 10 opponents and 1-16 against Alabama. Is this a "prove it" game for the Tide, or will the Vols win their second game against them in the last three years? We'll find out Saturday.

Indiana vs Nebraska

Who said Indiana was a basketball school? The Hoosiers are 6-0 for the second time in school history, and have scored 40+ points in five straight games for the first time ever as well. Curt Cignetti has transformed this program just like he transformed James Madison into a serious FBS school. The only Power 4 team with a higher EPA than the Hoosiers are my Hurricanes. They have a huge matchup with a Nebraska team who has a freshman phenom under center in Dylan Raiola. At 5-1, the Huskers are off to their best start through six games since going 6-0 in the 2016 season. Should be a good one in Bloomington this Saturday.

NFL Key Games and Injuries:

Chiefs Vs Niners:  A Super Bowl LVIII rematch! This portends to be a tight game with good matchups all over the field.  

The Niners’ 3-3 record isn’t exactly indicative of the potential of this team, but it does expose a weakness. They are 0-3 this season in close games (seven points or less). However, even without a key member of their offense (Christian McCaffrey), they’ve moved the ball remarkably well, averaging 420 yards per game (second in the league). They’ve been their own worst enemy at times this season, so it’s really a matter of which version of this team shows up.  

The Chiefs’ defense has been a bright spot for this team amid the struggles on offense, and even those struggles haven’t deterred this 5-0 squad. How long a team can last without its RB1 and WR1 remains to be seen, but if any team can keep it rolling, it’s this one.  

Vikings vs Lions: This NFC North matchup is the only Week 7 game featuring two teams in the Power Rankings' top five.   

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. The Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson -- better known as the bulk of their pass rush -- to a season-ending leg injury. How they will respond going forward remains to be seen, and this week presents perhaps the toughest test in doing so. Offensively, the Lions are elite in every sense of the word -- they lead the league in points per game (30.2) as a two-headed monster, ranking fourth in rushing efficiency and fifth in passing efficiency.  

The Vikings' record speaks for itself as they are one of two undefeated teams and currently rank No. 1 in the Power Rankings. They have been juggernauts through five weeks. Their +63-point differential (first) is in large part due to a defense that’s holding teams like the Texans to seven points.

Notably, the Vikings enter this game off a bye week. Per NFL Pro, teams that are undefeated (5-0 or better), playing at home, and coming off a bye week are 9-0 all time in the game following, and have won by an average of 19.8 points.

Here's the latest on some key injured players entering Week 7.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson will start in Week 7 against the Miami Dolphins after missing the last two games with an oblique injury, head coach Shane Steichen said on Monday.

The second-year quarterback suffered the injury on a hard hit during the Colts' Week 4 win over the Steelers.

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb will make his long-awaited return to the field in Sunday's AFC North matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The four-time Pro Bowler hasn't played in more than a year after suffering a gruesome knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season. He shared insight into his recovery in a Players' Tribune profile on Wednesday and said he's ready to repay the Cleveland fans who have stood by his side.

"These rocks ain’t going to move themselves," he wrote. "Let’s work."

Jordan Mason, RB, 49ers

Running back Jordan Mason left the San Francisco 49ers' Thursday night win over the Seattle Seahawks with a sprained AC joint. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Friday that Mason would be "day to day" and classified it as "good news" with a Super Bowl LVIII rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs looming.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in the Arizona Cardinals' Week 6 loss against the Green Bay Packers.

The rookie wide receiver will need to clear the NFL's concussion protocol in order to suit up against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Andrew Thomas, LT, Giants

The New York Giants are reportedly expected to be without left tackle Andrew Thomas for the rest of the season. NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that the fourth overall draft pick from 2020 underwent surgery Wednesday morning to repair a Lisfranc injury in his foot.

Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Lions

The Detroit Lions were dealt a devastating blow in their dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, as star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a broken leg.

The team placed Hutchinson, who has an NFL-leading 7.5 sacks through six weeks, on season-ending injured reserve on Tuesday.

Patrick Surtain II, CB, Broncos

Patrick Surtain II entered the NFL's concussion protocol after breaking up a pass in coverage during the Denver Broncos loss to the Chargers on Sunday.

The Broncos listed the Pro Bowl cornerback as a non-participant in Monday's practice estimation ahead of the team's Thursday night game in New Orleans.

We hope that you are able to use these injuries notes to your advantage, whether in sports betting or in fantasy football or survivor pools. Everyone have a great weekend!

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