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Those who run the political predictions betting markets are speaking up.
On Wednesday, Manifold released its analysis of the close Senate race in the US, in particular focusing on whether the Democrats can take Florida, Texas or Nebraska.
Now Kalshi's 28-year-old co-founder and CEO, Tarek Mansour, is predicting a win by former President Donald Trump in the general election based on the action coming in on the platform.
When Fortune visited Kalshi’s SoHo headquarters in Manhattan last Friday, its newly legal presidential market was just a couple of weeks old. The Sequoia-backed company had prepared for the moment since its 2021 launch, and now Mansour boasted the platform could handle single trades of up to $100 million.
“You don’t need to ask that question anymore,” he said. “That’s the whole point.”
From Fortune:
The case for prediction markets goes like this: Pollsters have skin in the game but for all the wrong reasons. They’re politically biased, they can be manipulated, and there are conflicts of interest. On top of that, the methodology is outdated and inaccurate.
By contrast, markets are both pure and efficient. They aggregate information persuading people to put real money on the line. They’re incentivized to be truthful. “People don’t lie with money,” Mansour said.
It’s a view increasingly shared by academics, investors, and even analysts. The prominent election prognosticator Nate Silver now advises Polymarket, Kalshi’s offshore and unregulated competitor. For a growing segment of the political class, the wisdom of the gambling masses trumps the experts.
Whether you agree with the thesis or not, this is the first U.S. election to test it on a large scale. Thanks to Kalshi’s victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in federal court, users can now bet on an array of politically themed contracts, from Senate races to margins of victory.
They can do the same at a number of offshore gambling sites like BetOnline as well.
Trump continues to trend upwards at BetOnline, though he seems to have peaked at -165 compared to Kamala Harris at +140.
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