Heavy Lopsided Betting Action on Steelers in MNF Game vs. Giants

The AcePerHead odds platform shows Pittsburgh getting 81% on the tickets in their Monday Night Football game against the New York Giants.

Line Analysis and Action

• Opening Line - Steelers -3.5
• Line Trend - Steelers -6.5 to -6.  We did see the number as high as 7.  Do watch Monday afternoon to see if this number continues trending down or moves up to -7.  That number had dropped to -5.5 with heavy action still on the Steelers on the AcePerHead feed, though most books were still down to -6.
• Sagarin Number - We get a number of 9.63, indicating a decent sized underlay.  Our model doesn't give any edge to teams when there is an underlay in the 6/6.5/7 range for NFL games.
• Action - Heavy lopsided.  80% or greater on tickets, as noted above. 72% of the money overnight Sunday.  This could all change Monday afternoon.

Commentary From Gambling911.com's Tony Caliente

"I'd be less inclined to back the Steelers here if the line moves up to -7 but way more inclined to go with the Giants if the number continues trending towards the 6 and especially if it moves down to 5.5.  The 5.5 might be the trigger point as oddsmakers would be showing their cards, that the Giants they believe are going to cover here.  That's assuming the action keeps pouring in on Pittsburgh though.  If the action balances, sit this one out."

Historic Comparables

• Jaguars +7 to +5.5 Texans - This was a 2023 game where the Texans number should have been 6.98.  The line drop became an underlay after opening on the money.  Jaguars (the dog) went on to cover the spread.

Giants player to watch

DT Dexter Lawrence. The two-time Pro Bowler leads the NFL with a career-high nine sacks. It’s the highest total by a Giants player in the first seven games since Pro Football Hall of Famer Michael Strahan had 12 1/2 in 2001. The 2019 first-round pick has six sacks in the past three games, the first Giants defender to do that since Jason Pierre-Paul from Nov. 30-Dec. 14, 2014.

Steelers Player to Watch

RB Najee Harris. The fourth-year pro and the offensive line in front of him are both starting to gain some traction in the running game. Harris has topped 100 yards in each of Pittsburgh’s past two games, just the second time in his career he’s gone over 100 yards in consecutive weeks. If QB Russell Wilson can build off his 264-yard performance in his Pittsburgh debut last Sunday against the Jets, the running lanes only figure to get wider for Harris.

Key Matchup

New York’s offensive line against Steeler linebackers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. The Giants have struggled at times to protect QB Daniel Jones and now find themselves tasked with trying to slow down one of the best pass rush tandems in the league. Watt is putting together another All-Pro season and Highsmith appears to be fully recovered from a groin injury that forced him to miss three games.

Key injuries

Giants P Jamie Gillan (hamstring) and CB Adoree Jackson (neck) missed last week. CB Cor’Dale Flott (groin) and backup LB Ty Summers (ankle) left the game last week with injuries. ... The Steelers will be without starting center Zach Frazier (ankle) and backup outside linebacker Nick Herbig (hamstring). Pittsburgh RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) could be back after missing three games. S Damontae Kazee (ankle) is also expected to play.