Election Odds By State Have Just One of Seven Swing States Going to Harris
Election narratives being written via polls and predictive markets seemingly change by the day.
Perhaps the truest indicator of the election outcome is not either of those, but the old-school bookie who takes an unbiased position and simply moves numbers based on action.
BetOnline.ag has been doing just that with political betting for the past 20 years, and it first posted winning-party odds for each of the 50 states in August.
You can find the complete list below the notes, as well as each state's implied probability of going to the Democrats or Republicans (calculated via the odds).
ODDS BREAKDOWN
Democrats are favored to win 21 states
Republicans are favored to win 29 states
CLOSEST STATES (According to odds)
Michigan (55.6% Democrat)
Wisconsin (58.3% Democrat)
Pennsylvania (60.8% Republican)
CHANGES FROM OPENING ODDS (Monday, August 26)
Wisconsin flipped from Blue to Red
Nevada and Pennsylvania were tossups (even odds) but are now both are Red
21 states odds did not change
If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source. If you need a quote from an oddsmaker or anything else, please let us know.
State-by-state election odds are subject to change and will be updated in real-time on this page: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/2024-state-presidential-betting
2024 State-by-State Party Odds
Alabama
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Alaska
Republicans -2500
Democrats +1200
Note: Odds imply a 96.2% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Arizona
Republicans -275
Democrats +215
Note: Odds imply a 73.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Arkansas
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
California
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Colorado
Democrats -1800
Republicans +900
Note: Odds imply a 94.7% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Connecticut
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Delaware
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Florida
Republicans -4000
Democrats +1400
Note: Odds imply an 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Georgia
Republicans -300
Democrats +240
Note: Odds imply a 75% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Hawaii
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Idaho
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Illinois
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Indiana
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Iowa
Republicans -2000
Democrats +1000
Note: Odds imply a 95.2% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Kansas
Republicans -5000
Democrats +1600
Note: Odds imply a 98% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Kentucky
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Louisiana
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Maine
Democrats -1000
Republicans +600
Note: Odds imply a 90.9% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Maryland
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Massachusetts
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state
Michigan
Democrats -125
Republicans -105
Note: Odds imply a 55.6% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Minnesota
Democrats -900
Republicans +550
Note: Odds imply a 90% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Mississippi
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Missouri
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Montana
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Nebraska
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Nevada
Republicans -210
Democrats +170
Note: Odds imply a 67.7% probability of Republicans taking the state.
New Hampshire
Democrats -500
Republicans +300
Note: Odds imply an 83.3% probability of Democrats taking the state.
New Jersey
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
New Mexico
Democrats -1200
Republicans +650
Note: Odds imply a 92.3% probability of Democrats taking the state.
New York
Democrats -8000
Republicans +2000
Note: Odds imply a 98.8% probability of Democrats taking the state.
North Carolina
Republicans -275
Democrats +215
Note: Odds imply a 73.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.
North Dakota
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Ohio
Republicans -4000
Democrats +1400
Note: Odds imply a 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Oklahoma
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Oregon
Democrats -8000
Republicans +2000
Note: Odds imply a 98.8% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Pennsylvania
Republicans -155
Democrats +125
Note: Odds imply a 60.8% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Rhode Island
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
South Carolina
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
South Dakota
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Tennessee
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Texas
Republicans -4000
Democrats +1400
Note: Odds imply an 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Utah
Republicans -10000
Democrats +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Vermont
Democrats -20000
Republicans +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Virginia
Democrats -650
Republicans +475
Note: Odds imply an 86.7% probability of Democrats taking the state.
Washington
Democrats -10000
Republicans +2500
Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.
West Virginia
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Wisconsin
Republicans -140
Democrats +110
Note: Odds imply a 58.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.
Wyoming
Republicans -20000
Democrats +4000
Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.
|
|
