Election Odds By State Have Just One of Seven Swing States Going to Harris

Election narratives being written via polls and predictive markets seemingly change by the day.

Perhaps the truest indicator of the election outcome is not either of those, but the old-school bookie who takes an unbiased position and simply moves numbers based on action.

BetOnline.ag has been doing just that with political betting for the past 20 years, and it first posted winning-party odds for each of the 50 states in August.

You can find the complete list below the notes, as well as each state's implied probability of going to the Democrats or Republicans (calculated via the odds).

ODDS BREAKDOWN

 

    Democrats are favored to win 21 states

    Republicans are favored to win 29 states

 

CLOSEST STATES (According to odds)  

 

    Michigan (55.6% Democrat)

    Wisconsin (58.3% Democrat)

    Pennsylvania (60.8% Republican)

 

CHANGES FROM OPENING ODDS (Monday, August 26)

 

    Wisconsin flipped from Blue to Red

    Nevada and Pennsylvania were tossups (even odds) but are now both are Red
    21 states odds did not change

If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source. If you need a quote from an oddsmaker or anything else, please let us know.

 

State-by-state election odds are subject to change and will be updated in real-time on this page: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/2024-state-presidential-betting  

 

2024 State-by-State Party Odds

 

Alabama

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Alaska

Republicans   -2500

Democrats +1200

Note: Odds imply a 96.2% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Arizona

Republicans -275

Democrats    +215

Note: Odds imply a 73.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Arkansas

Republicans   -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

California

Democrats -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Colorado

Democrats   -1800

Republicans +900

Note: Odds imply a 94.7% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Connecticut

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Delaware

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Florida

Republicans   -4000

Democrats +1400

Note: Odds imply an 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Georgia

Republicans   -300

Democrats +240

Note: Odds imply a 75% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Hawaii

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Idaho

Republicans   -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Illinois

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Indiana

Republicans     -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Iowa

Republicans   -2000

Democrats +1000

Note: Odds imply a 95.2% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Kansas

Republicans   -5000

Democrats +1600

Note: Odds imply a 98% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Kentucky

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Louisiana

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Maine

Democrats   -1000

Republicans +600

Note: Odds imply a 90.9% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Maryland

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Massachusetts

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state

 

Michigan

Democrats   -125

Republicans     -105

Note: Odds imply a 55.6% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Minnesota

Democrats   -900

Republicans +550

Note: Odds imply a 90% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Mississippi

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Missouri

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Montana

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Nebraska

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Nevada

Republicans    -210

Democrats    +170

Note: Odds imply a 67.7% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

New Hampshire

Democrats   -500

Republicans +300

Note: Odds imply an 83.3% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

New Jersey

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

New Mexico

Democrats   -1200

Republicans +650

Note: Odds imply a 92.3% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

New York

Democrats   -8000

Republicans +2000

Note: Odds imply a 98.8% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

North Carolina

Republicans   -275

Democrats +215

Note: Odds imply a 73.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

North Dakota

Republicans -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Ohio      

Republicans   -4000

Democrats +1400

Note: Odds imply a 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Oklahoma

Republicans   -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Oregon

Democrats   -8000

Republicans +2000

Note: Odds imply a 98.8% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Pennsylvania

Republicans          -155

Democrats       +125

Note: Odds imply a 60.8% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Rhode Island

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

South Carolina

Republicans     -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

South Dakota

Republicans     -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Tennessee

Republicans     -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Texas

Republicans     -4000

Democrats     +1400

Note: Odds imply an 97.6% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Utah

Republicans   -10000

Democrats +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Vermont

Democrats   -20000

Republicans +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Virginia

Democrats    -650

Republicans     +475

Note: Odds imply an 86.7% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

Washington

Democrats   -10000

Republicans +2500

Note: Odds imply a 99% probability of Democrats taking the state.

 

West Virginia

Republicans     -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Wisconsin

Republicans   -140

Democrats +110

Note: Odds imply a 58.3% probability of Republicans taking the state.

 

Wyoming

Republicans     -20000

Democrats +4000

Note: Odds imply a 99.5% probability of Republicans taking the state.

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