Ducks Dominance, Biggest Service Acedemy Spread in 34 Years Ends Up a Push, More

Prior to Week 10's college football games, our friends at BetOnline offered up some great anecdotes (stats and trends).  A few things went awry.

Three undefeated teams in Indiana, Oregon and Pittsburgh all hit the road this week, plus there was a Service Academy game, a top-five matchup in the Big Ten and more.

• Dan Lanning is undefeated as a road favorite.
• The largest academy (Air Force vs Army) spread in 21 years.
• Penn State has lost six straight as a home underdog while Ohio State has lost five straight top five matchups.
• Marshall is the last team standing undefeated ATS.
• Clemson has won their last 15 home games coming off a bye week.

BetOnline will be updating its College Football Championship odds on Sunday.

Dan The Man

This was Michigan's seventh home game of the season and its third as a home underdog. The Wolverines hadn't had three games or more as a home 'dog in a single season since 2009 — the only other season it has happened was 1990.

Being a double-digit underdog at home has only happened three times since 1990:
+17 — 2013 vs. OSU (L, 42-21)
+12.5 — 2017 vs. OSU (L, 31-20)
+10 — 2009 vs. OSU (L, 21-10)

When all was said and done, Oregon once again proved their dominance this season with a 38-17 win, easily covering the 15-point spread.

At Your Service

Let's start with the line. Since 1990, we've only seen two Service Academy games with a spread of 24 points or more. The last came in 2003 between Air Force and Army — a 26.5-point favorite for Air Force, a 31-3 win. There have been six 20-point academy lines in that span, those teams are 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS.

Unders in these matchups have been the historical cash cow, going 50-11-3 since 2003. But let's take a second to do a little analysis.

They were again this year as the game finished well below the 38.5 total at 20-3. 

Ciggy

Another week, another Indiana win and cover. The Hoosiers were still undefeated, but they are also on a seven-game SU and ATS win streak — the longest SU/ATS streak in the country. The last team to still be undefeated SU and be on a seven-game SU/ATS win streak was Alabama in 2020.

Indiana is now 6-0 SU in the Big Ten this year following their romp over MSU Saturday night.  It's shocking to think they went 3-24 SU in the conference the previous three seasons.

Curt Cignetti is now 23-9 ATS with Indiana and James Madison. Cignetti is 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS in his last 18 games coached.

Dating back to 2007, Michigan State had been listed as an underdog the week after facing Michigan six times and they won four of those games outright prior to Saturday night's loss.

NFL Week 9 Preview

Join Pac and Zach as they dive into NFL Week 8’s spookiest surprises and break down the biggest matchups for Week 9! From controversial QB headlines to top games like Rams vs. Seahawks and Sunday’s Colts vs. Vikings face-off, Pac & Zach bring their takes and predictions on this Halloween edition. Don’t miss insights on Derrick Henry’s late-season push, Jameis Winston, and more!  All odds courtesy of BetOnline.

Un-Happy Valley

Penn State hasn't defeated Ohio State outright since 2016 — seven straight wins for the Buckeyes. Dating back to 2012, Ohio State is 11-1 SU vs. Penn State, including 18-4 SU since 2002.

That trend continued on Saturday with Penn State losing 20-13.

As a home underdog, Penn State had lost six consecutive game straight up with their last win coming back in 2016 against … Ohio State.  Now that number is at 7.

Follow The Herd

Marshall was now the only remaining team in the country undefeated against the spread, 7-0 ATS heading into Saturday game against Louisiana-Monroe after their bye.

Here were the four other teams to start 7-0 ATS over the last decade:

2020 Indiana during the COVID-shortened season
2017 Georgia Tech
2017 Fresno State
2016 Colorado

So how did it work out for Marshall?

They won but failed to cover the -10.5 spread with a 28-23 victory.

Fried Gator

Since 1990, Florida has only closed as a 20-point underdog three times.

2022 vs. Georgia, 2016 vs. Alabama and 2013 vs. Florida State. Florida lost all three games outright, went 1-2 ATS, losing by at least 21 points in each contest.

Their highest spread as an underdog in that span came in the 2013 game vs. Florida State, where they closed as 28-point underdogs.

Overall, Florida had lost 12 consecutive games SU as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016. Overall, they are 3-22 SU as double-digit dogs since 1990, actually beating Georgia in that spot back in 2014.

Georgia was coming off a bye after breaking a five-game ATS losing streak two weeks ago vs. Texas. Under Kirby Smart, Georgia was 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS on any extended rest. Their last game in this spot came against Alabama this year, a loss that broke a 15-game SU win streak for Kirby.

The Bulldogs easily beat Florida, just not by that 20 point spread.  They won by 14 on Saturday. 

Pony Up

Pittsburgh was undefeated straight up this season and getting some extra rest after beating up on Syracuse on Thursday night last week. Undefeated teams SU on extended rest in Game 8 or later of the season were 64% SU over the last decade coming into Saturday's game, but just 46% ATS, including 9-13 ATS when that game is on the road.

The one positive aspect to Pitt's run recently has been their defense. They had five interceptions last week and have allowed fewer than 17 pts now in back-to-back games. Over the last decade, undefeated teams this late into the season to allow 17 points or less in consecutive games are winning 83% of games SU, but are 67-50-1 ATS and 64-52-2 to the over in their next game. This also works for Oregon and Indiana this week.

The negative side when it comes to the line for Pitt: Undefeated teams in Game 8 or later as a 6-point dog are 7-27 SU, 14-19-1 ATS since 2010, with those games 21-13 to the under.

Pittsburgh ultimately went down in flames against SMU Saturday night.