Will the Baltimore Ravens Cover the Spread This Week?

We are monitoring the Baltimore Ravens to determine if they will cover the spread this week.  This is a team we can expect to see more lopsided action the remainder of this season against most teams.

Week 10

Bengals @ Ravens

Line Trend  - Sharp book Circa opened at Ravens -6.5 but almost immediately moved to -6.

Sagarin – Using last week’s ratings we get a number of 4.64.  The line movement trended above this number early on.  Overlays of 6.5/7 do not provide for much of an edge using our model.  It's very slight for the dog. 

Action Trend – Monday's super early action had the Ravens getting around 60% of the action, both tickets and cash.

Historic Analysis -

• Bengals +6.5 Chiefs (Chiefs 5.5 On The Money, Overlay of 1 ) - Underdog covers.
• Tennessee +6.5 Jacksonville (road dog Tenn covers) Jacksonville 4.34 Overlay of 2 - Underdog covers.
• Bears +6.5 Texans (Texans 5.88 Overlay of 1 point) - Favorite covers.

This comparable features the same sized overlay and similar line movement but the road team is favored and wins.

• 49ers -7 to -6 Rams (49ers 4.68 Overlay)

Same situation here only the home dogs cover.

• Kansas City -6.5 to -5.5 Indianapolis (home dog Indianapolis covers and wins by 3 points) Kansas 2.9 Overlay of 3 to 3.5.
• KC -7 to -5.5 LA Chargers (home dog Chargers cover with KC 3 point win) KC 3.17 Overlay of 2.5 to 4 .
• Philadelphia -7 to -6.5 New York Jets (PHIL 1.07 Overlay of 5.5 to 6).

Recent Trends

• Baltimore is 6-1 Straight Up and Against The Spread following a 0-2 start both SU and ATS.

Season Review

The Baltimore Ravens opened as one of the favorites to win the 2025 Super Bowl.

Week 1 - The number really didn't move off the 2.5 with Baltimore a home dog hosting the Chiefs.  The Ravens saw most of the action as a dog. Sagarin gave us a number of -2.95 Chiefs.  Accurate lines in the 2.5/3 range have boded well for the favorite.

Week 1 Result: Chiefs beat the Ravens by a touchdown.

Week 2/Week 8 Similarities - Ravens opened -8 at home against the Raiders.  This one moved to -10 and back down to -9.  85% of the action was on Baltimore. Seeing the line move to 10 made sense all things considered.  Sagarin gave us a number of Ravens 11.27, suggestive of an underlay and maybe the Ravens would blow out Las Vegas after last week's loss?  We fast forward a bit to Week 8 with the comparables as the Ravens were coming in as -9 point favorite hosting Cleveland only to drop to -7 (Sunday only) with 80% action on Baltimore.  Sagarin indicated an underlay even with the 9, albeit slight (9.93 was their number).  Cleveland would go on to win this one outright. 

Early Super Bowl 2025 Odds

For all the latest updated live futures odds go here.