QB Starter-to-Backup Spread Differential Changes at Midway Point of NFL Season
You may have seen the spread values of starting quarterbacks before.
BetOnline.ag oddsmakers have decided to take a different approach this year. Below is a list that identifies the value gap between the starter and the backup for each team.
Before Week 2 of the NFL season, I sent out this note below:
An example is this weekend, where the look-ahead line (posted before Week 1) for the Colts-Packers game in Week 2 was Green Bay -4. Now with Love out and Malik Willis starting, Green Bay is a 2.5-point underdog.
So, Jordan Love isn’t necessarily worth 6.5 points, but the difference between starting Love and Willis is 6.5 points.
In some instances, such as the Panthers, Giants and Titans, starting the backup would be advantageous to those teams' pointspread.
For example, the Giants are currently 2-point underdogs to Washington in Week 2. If Drew Lock were starting instead of Daniel Jones, New York would be just a 1-point underdog.
The teams are listed below in order of which team is hurt the most in the eyes of the oddsmakers by not having the starter in the game.
The oddsmakers have since updated this chart based on each starter and backup (when applicable) have played.
Here are some notes from the initial list:
- The first spread was the opening spread difference. If there’s a change, it’s in parenthesis and to the right of the opening spread.
- For example the difference between Lamar Jackson and Josh Johnson was -7.5. It has since moved to -9.
- Some spreads got longer based on the QB play:
- Jayden Daniels
- Sam Darnold
- Bo Nix
- Baker Mayfield
- Some spreads got longer based on how poor the backups have been:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Derek Carr
- Some spreads got shorter based on poor play:
- Deshaun Watson
- Trevor Lawrence
- Will Levis
- Some spreads got longer based on good back-up play:
- Jordan Love
- Justin Fields
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson -7.5 (-9)
Josh Johnson
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen -7 (-8)
Mitchell Trubisky
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes -7.5
Carson Wentz
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford -5.5 (-6.5)
Stetson Bennett
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels -1.5 (-6.5)
Marcus Mariota
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud -5.5 (-6)
Davis Mills
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff -5 (-6)
Hendon Hooker
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert -5 (-6)
Easton Stick
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts -5 (-6)
Kenny Pickett
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa -3.5 (-5.5)
Skylar Thompson
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray -5
Clayton Tune
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow -4 (-5)
Jake Browning
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield -3.5 (-5)
Kyle Trask
Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins -4.5
Michael Penix Jr.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott -4.5
Cooper Rush
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love -6.5 (-4.5)
Malik Willis
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold -1 (-4.5)
Nick Mullens
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr -3.5 (-4.5)
Spencer Rattler (was Jake Haener)
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy -4.5
Brandon Allen
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix 0 (-3)
Jarrett Stidham
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence -4 (-3)
Mac Jones
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers -3.5 (-3)
Tyrod Taylor
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams -2.5
Tyson Bagent
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith -2.5
Sam Howell
Las Vegas Raiders
Gardner Minshew 0
Aiden O'Connell
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young +1.5 (+.5)
Andy Dalton
New York Giants
Daniel Jones +1
Drew Lock
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson -1 (+2)
Joe Flacco
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson -0.5 (+2.5)
Jameis Winston
New England Patriots
Jacoby Brissett -0.5 (+2.5)
Drake Maye
Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields 0 (+2.5)
Russell Wilson
Tennessee Titans
Will Levis +0.5 (+2.5)
Mason Rudolph
