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A good one is on tap Sunday night as the Detroit Lions come to the Houston Texans.
Lions @ Texans
Opening Line - The line opened at Lions -3.5.
Line Trend - This one has shifted between the 3.5 and 3, favoring Detroit, all week.
Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of 4.67, indicating a slight underlay
Action Trend – 75% of the betting action was on Detroit in this one.
Comparables
- LA Chargers -3.5 to -3 Atlanta (home dog Atlanta covers with LA 3 point win) LA 4.86 Underlay of 1.5 to 2 - Home dog covers
- Cleveland -3 to -3.5 Indianapolis (Cleveland 4.99 - Underlay of 1.5 to 2) - Home dog covers
- Jacksonville -3 / -3.5 Houston (road favorite Jacksonville covers with big win) Jacksonville 5.78 Underlay 2.5 to 3 points - Road favorite covers, though the underlay was slightly more at between 2.5 and 3 points.
Lions Player to Watch
WR Jameson Williams returns after serving a two-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy. The Lions struggled to get the ball down the field in his absence. After averaging 12.6 yards per completion in the season’s first six games, Jared Goff dropped to 7.7 yards per completion against Tennessee and Green Bay. Williams is averaging 21.2 yards per catch this season and has been Goff’s only consistent deep option. He ranks second on the team with 361 yards receiving.
Texans Player to Watch
WR Nico Collins could return this week after missing the past four games after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Coach DeMeco Ryans said this week that Collins is “doing good” but wouldn’t say if he’ll play. If he is back, it will be a huge boost to a passing game that has struggled in recent weeks without him and with Stefon Diggs out for the season. Collins remains Houston’s leading receiver with 567 yards and eight touchdowns despite his extended absence.
Key Matchup
Goff vs. Houston’s defense. Goff is the first quarterback in league history to complete at least 72% of his passes with a passer rating of 105 or higher in six straight games. His completion rate (82.8%) and passer rating (140.1) over the past six games are the highest in any six-game span in NFL history for a player with at least 50 passing attempts. Now he’ll face a defense which ranks third in the NFL by allowing just 167.4 yards passing a game and which ranks fourth with 29 sacks.
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